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Author Topic: Chinese Yuan as world currency  (Read 3350 times)

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Offline tryanotherone - smurfernating

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Chinese Yuan as world currency
« on: March 2, 2011, 03:42:43 PM »
I just read that the chinese government plans (longterm. what ever that means) to replace the US dollar with the chinese yuan as the 'world's currency'.

If this becomes true it would mean that the US government would probably have a very hard time to get fresh money for its budget.

Is the USA prepared for such a step and what would be the possible consequences on a national and international basis?
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Offline hs5ias

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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #1 on: March 2, 2011, 06:33:20 PM »
The Chinese government is thinking that the good times it is experiencing will continue forever. They won't. China is simply moving up the technology curve, following the exact same path every other country did before it when they industrialised.

Once China reaches parity with the other modern industrial nations, it's economic growth will fall back and from then on it will grow no faster than anyone else. A new world equilibrium will come to pass.

This phenomenon has happened before with the UK vis a vis the rest of the world. For a while in the nineteenth century the world economic system was that most of the manufacturing took place in the UK, the rest of the world supplying markets and materials. Once Germany, France, the US and elsewhere really industrialised the dominance of the UK soon faded, even as the UK continued with the same rate of economic growth (actually UK growth rates were higher in the 20th century than the 19th).

The Chinese Yuan will become a major currency, of that there is no doubt, and it will diminish the current high level of dominance of the dollar. The USA is far too large and far too wealthy to be eclipsed though. The dollar has not rendered the Yen, the Pound, the Deutshmark, the Swiss Franc or many other currencies obsolete, or noticeably impeded any country's ability to run up debt.

The US government and people are going to have to get used to a world which is not so dominated by them and set up for their convenience. The Chinese though are also going to have to learn how to operate on a world scale without offending everyone by being patronising and arrogant, or just buying up everything they desire without regard for the consequences. Like we in the UK have had to do (much as we hated having to do so).

Offline Underhand

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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #2 on: March 4, 2011, 05:48:48 AM »
The dollar has not rendered the Yen, the Pound, the Deutshmark, the Swiss Franc or many other currencies obsolete,

It might not have been the Dollar that did it, but the Deutschmark has been kind of obsolete for a while now . . .

Offline 2quiet

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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #3 on: March 6, 2011, 09:10:12 AM »
The Chinese government is thinking that the good times it is experiencing will continue forever. They won't.

The USA is far too large and far too wealthy to be eclipsed though.

Know you went ahead and also said that the US was going to have to get used to not having such a dominance it has had, but there still remains a bit of a contradiction in what you have said in these places. Given that the phrase 'long term' was used by the OP, it seems that these statements could be quite mistaken - in time the US dollar may very well fall (because as you say, such trends of success don't last forever), and if that happens, another currency will take its place, and China's is at least as well placed if not more so, at least at the moment, to be the one to do so. On the other hand again, of course, depending on how long 'long term' is, China could be horribly placed if the US dollar does fall.
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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #4 on: March 6, 2011, 03:15:13 PM »
www.inflation.us

The fall of the dollar is coming. There might not be another world reserve currency, but several, but the dollar is getting taken off  that peg in the next couple of years true enough.

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Offline 2quiet

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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #5 on: March 6, 2011, 07:01:06 PM »
That's true, I should have said "will be replaced by one or more". We could get by with more localised reserve currencies or a number of other options, and we'll probably just take up that system which is most convenient at the time.
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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2011, 12:21:14 AM »
The chinese yuan has it's own problems. The demography of China is set to collapse rather than fall gradually since the passage of the one/two child policy. Again that policy has its own issues in encouraging the birth of more boys than girls (Girls in India and China seem to have a larger number of in utero abortions and ex utero "accidents") which will cause economic issues later. At this point in china there are a 100 million more men than women and rising.

China's manufacturing base is a combination of quantity and quality. A lot of the stuff they manufacture is kind of shoddy and made by poorly trained workers. You see that issue in India as well. For every Mittal Steel there are like 30 Yhwh-condemned manufacturers who build bridges that stop working after 10 days. Chinese currency will have to face off against the Euro as well as well. So the Yuan as a global currency isn't happening as soon as people think.

In order to have massive economic growth there must be room to grow into. Afghanistan's GDP growth is 8.9% while the USA's is around 2%. It's because supplying electricity to an area there is considered growth while supplying electricity to where the USA is considered normal. GDP growth must be sustained and China's pillage of its natural resources cannot.


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Offline Lord Ulthanash

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Re: Chinese Yuan as world currency
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2011, 03:40:03 PM »
The Chinese government is thinking that the good times it is experiencing will continue forever. They won't. China is simply moving up the technology curve, following the exact same path every other country did before it when they industrialised.

Once China reaches parity with the other modern industrial nations, it's economic growth will fall back and from then on it will grow no faster than anyone else. A new world equilibrium will come to pass.


This. There is also the fact that China's currency is incredibly devalued through their fixed exchange rates.

Another problem that I see with China and its economic system is that it is completely based off of incredibly cheap labor. A Yuan with low value is great for them, as they're a predominantly exporting nation. For their currency to be the 'superpower' currency, it would have to gain value. A lot of value. And the Chinese economic system is currently just not set up to handle that. As long as they can keep the people suppressed and pay them *whatever* they like, they'll be able to maintain such high productivity values. But there comes a point where a country has reached its maximum level of output, and as a country approaches this point, growth will slow down.

That said, America hasn't been a superpower for a while now, although it has been operating under the pretense because of perception, military power, and past economic glory. The country will slowly have to adapt and make the changes that Britain and so many other superpowers have made. The magazine The Economist believes that the US dollar will be replaced by a more powerful currency by 2018 (according to one article they wrote). I agree, but push the date back a little, around 2022.


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