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Author Topic: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014  (Read 6774 times)

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Offline Killing Time

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #20 on: March 7, 2014, 10:31:53 AM »
The difference is that no-one is actually morally defending the stance of the EU.
It's understandable from an economic perspective, but it's pathetic.

You'll notice that the US, which is not dependent on Russian gas, has imposed the same piss poor sanctions as the EU.
Congratulations, oh Leaders of the Free WorldTM. Your capacity for self irony truly knows no bounds.

Offline Katamari Damacy

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #21 on: March 7, 2014, 10:41:28 AM »
Remember that sad day, September 11? When was it... 1973? You know, when Henry "Nobel Peace Prize" Kissinger and Al-CIAeda intervened in Chile to liberate those poor people from a - in contrast to Bush - democratically elected President?

Or when they supported that human rights expert, Reza Pahlavi to create a bulwark against the evil commies? Or when they supported Saddam in order to get rid of the guy (Khomeini) they helped creating? Or when they helped that other lad, Osama, fight the evil russians by recruiting thousands of mercenaries (who later became Al-Quaeda)? I won't even go into the last Gulf war, i think even in the US it's common knowldge that this war was started based on nothing but fantasy and lies.

But again, this is something for that other thread  ;)

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Not sure if this is incredibly funny or insanely sad with all the be-atching that happened that the US supposedly invaded for cheap energy.  Seems you are saying the EU is putting access to cheap energy first.  Gee hypocrite much?

I fear it is insanely sad. I think the EU has trouble dealing with it's own problems (anti EU trends, economic problems) and having the Ukraine as a EU/Nato member would help neither side except for the top elites and some political agendas. Germany can't afford to do without russian gas because they are promoting their 'energy (r)evolution' (not sure how to translate 'Energiewende'). The Ukraine certainly can't afford it and neither do other European countries.
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Offline Ollieb

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2014, 11:16:17 AM »
Just to get it out of the way off the bat yes the US sucks and should be erased from the planet. 

Now that we all agree there, are you guys in the EU hearing anything on the news or first hand that isn't making it over here?  It almost seems to me that Russia is trying to become the major power player it once was and if that means annexing former Soviet Block countries then that is the path they are willing to take. 

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Offline Irisado

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2014, 11:27:19 AM »
It would be stretching events on the ground somewhat to argue that Russia is annexing former Soviet countries.  It has annexed Crimea, but to encroach any further into Ukraine would be a massive gamble on Putin's part, and I'm sceptical that he'd want to do that.  After all, it's Crimea that's strategically the most important of Crimea to Russia, and it now has control of that territory.

It's also worth reminding ourselves that the Baltic states and eastern European countries are members of the EU, and the majority are also members of NATO, so Russia isn't go to try any sort of expansion westwards.

There's no doubt that Putin wants Russia to be a major player on the world stage, but it's not able to rekindle past glories.  In a way, this whole Crimea adventure is all about symbolism for Putin in my opinion.  He's using it to show that Russia really is a key player, and is strong under his leadership.  In the short-term, it looks very good, but in the long-term this may come back to haunt him.
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Offline Ollieb

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2014, 11:31:41 AM »
I was wondering what the West would do if Chechnya were to announce they are going to hold their own referendum to break away and form the Islamic state they want there.  Would it be supported as a way of telling Russia if they recognize the referendum in Crimea we will recognize the one in Chechnya  Things that make you go hmmmm
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Offline PaxImperatrix

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #25 on: March 25, 2014, 03:13:07 AM »
It's also worth reminding ourselves that the Baltic states and eastern European countries are members of the EU, and the majority are also members of NATO, so Russia isn't go to try any sort of expansion westwards.

Wouldn't it? It would certainly be upping the stakes to try this again if, say, one of the Baltic states is suffering from serious civil unrest, but it's not out of the question. After all, isn't Mr Putin only 'saving the Russian minority from their cruel oppressors'? The EU and US response so far is the butt of jokes in Russia, and rightly so. These are hardly the type of sanctions that would dissuade Putin from trying his luck again with a more ambitious target.

I was wondering what the West would do if Chechnya were to announce they are going to hold their own referendum to break away and form the Islamic state they want there.  Would it be supported as a way of telling Russia if they recognize the referendum in Crimea we will recognize the one in Chechnya  Things that make you go hmmmm

The irony is that the Russians view this Crimean Crisis as a way of getting back at the West for Kosovo's secession from Serbia. And using the exact same argument: protecting minority rights! Russia opposed Kosovo's secession from Serbia at the time and is now using the very precedent set by that secession to its own advantage in Crimea.

Offline Irisado

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #26 on: March 25, 2014, 06:56:41 AM »
Wouldn't it? It would certainly be upping the stakes to try this again if, say, one of the Baltic states is suffering from serious civil unrest, but it's not out of the question. After all, isn't Mr Putin only 'saving the Russian minority from their cruel oppressors'? The EU and US response so far is the butt of jokes in Russia, and rightly so. These are hardly the type of sanctions that would dissuade Putin from trying his luck again with a more ambitious target.

Putin's entire approach is to divide the West, and act only up to a certain point, in order to bolster his own power and prestige, but without doing enough to unit Western leaders in taking more definitive action against him.  He knows that any threat to EU member states/NATO member states would bring the EU and US together in a collective response, which would be a lot more robust than the current sanctions, so he won't go that far.

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The irony is that the Russians view this Crimean Crisis as a way of getting back at the West for Kosovo's secession from Serbia. And using the exact same argument: protecting minority rights! Russia opposed Kosovo's secession from Serbia at the time and is now using the very precedent set by that secession to its own advantage in Crimea.

Although the ultimate irony is that it was the Russians pulling the diplomatic rug from beneath Milosevic's feet which forced him to back down.
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Offline Sir_Godspeed

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #27 on: April 20, 2014, 04:14:38 PM »
So, a short recap. Armed, well-organized uprisings in about a dozen or so towns/cities in Eastern Ukraine by pro-Russian forces.

Ukrainian interim government vows to restore control. Sends in troops. Paratroopers are surrounded, ambused and surrender without firing a shot. Rumours of people switching sides. Armed vehicles (IFVs) captured by rebels.

However, several installations were retaken by Ukrainian forces. Rebel HQ, Slaviansk, stands defiant and impenetrable despite several maneuverings by government forces. Few, if any deaths, as far as I've seen. Russia sends stern message for no violence by the government in Kiev.

Near-miraculous agreement reached between EU, Ukraine and Russia; disarmament of the pro-Russian militia, as well as by the Right Sector, Ukrainian nationalist party that was pro-Euromaidan. In addition, the Russophone minority should get to use their language as a first language, amongst other concessions to the pro-Russian groups.

Pro-Russian militia leadership says they are not taking orders from neither Kiev or Moscow, and won't disarm. However, according to journalists, some forces seem to have dissipated.

So, what's happened in the last few days? I've been off at the cabin.

Offline Irisado

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2014, 06:15:24 AM »
The problem, as always, is implementation on the ground.  The agreement was a major step forward at an elite level, but there are still ongoing problems.  You can read about some of them here.  I still don't feel that there is a massive danger of escalation.  It's not in the interests of anyone for there to be a major conflict in Ukraine.  There's no doubt that Russia wants Ukraine to turn back towards Moscow, so Putin will do anything he can to undermine Kiev's current government without sending in the Russian army, but he is not solely to blame for this, and the United States in particular needs to be careful about the rhetoric it employs.

For the moment then, an uneasy truce in theory, but in practice I don't know if it can be sustained.
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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2014, 09:16:51 AM »
Diverging off the current arguments: I've been hearing that the EU and US wish to put pressure on Russia through cutting coal and oil trade with them. Given that coal and oil trades make up almost 50% of the Russian parilmentary budget, this seems like a fairly significant threat.

What's worse, I think that if should such a "threat" be forwarded, then Putin will take the blow to the face and continue on his, for want of a better word, campaign. Currently, his domestic (local) support in Russia is quite high, as he remains a strong leader in the eyes of the Russians. But while Putin has built his tower high, he hasn't built it particularly strong. If Putin starts showing signs of weakness and gives into the pressure put upon him, he is done for.     
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Offline Sir_Godspeed

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #30 on: April 21, 2014, 05:18:57 PM »
I dunno. Ironically, putting a lot of pressure on Russia might cement a "us vs. them" rhetoric internally in Russia even stronger, making Putin more popular.

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Re: "Crimean Crisis" Anno 2014
« Reply #31 on: April 22, 2014, 09:02:25 AM »
Consider the strongman image Putin has constructed, then yes it's fragile because he cannot afford to be weak on any issue. While great for being belligerent, if there are repercussions. then Putin has to pay a price. Either as a strong leader who wouldn't concede even in the face of an unanswerable threat or as someone who had to bend.

The Ukraine has a problem in that the current government is illegitimate. It was not elected but a revolutionary government. Until an election is held Russia can always question its legitimacy. In addition? Ukraine has no teeth. It's just got cut in half without a fight and honestly, it's unlikely to get Crimea back. All it can do is consolidate and join Nato to prevent further predation. Nato isn't going to fight Russia for Crimea (not when the USA is so badly hurt by the wars) unless pushed. In short? Russia's probably gotten away with it.


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