flood

News:

Login  |  Register

Author Topic: Percenteges of Death  (Read 3802 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Mystic511

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 282
  • I *Love* EldarOnline! No, really, i do!
    • Personal Website
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #20 on: August 7, 2002, 03:40:24 PM »
i'm speechless.  ;)

Offline The Hive Custodian (Retired)

  • Primojanitor Paragon
  • Ancient
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3021
  • Perfection Within; Perfection Without
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #21 on: August 9, 2002, 04:14:53 PM »
To figure out the chances of your killing at least one Space Marine with a pair of twin-linked rail guns:

BS 3 is equal to 1/2, twin-linked giving you a 3/4 chance to hit. 3/4 to hit x 5/6 wound = 15/24 or 5/8. However, to find the chance of it failing to kill a Space Marine both times is 1-(1-chance of killing)# of guns, or in this case 1-(1-5/8)2 = 1-(3/8)2 = 1-9/64 = 54/64 chance you will kill AT LEAST one Space Marine.

As the number of guns, attacks, and other stuff increases, things get more complicated. Suppose that you wanted to kill at least 3 Space Marines with 6 twin-linked railguns in one Shooting Phase on your last turn in a Clease battle so you can get them out of your quarter. This means that you could kill 3, 4, 5, or 6 Space Marines and succeed. As the chance of a Space Marine being killed by a Railgun shot is 5/8, and the chances of survival is 3/8, the total number of possiblites is 86, or 262,144. The chances of killing 6 Space Marines (every shot succeeding) out of 262,144 is 56, as that is the number of combinations that will produce 6 kills: 15,625. The number of combinations that will produce 5 kills is equal to 55 (5 kills) x 31 (one failure) x 6 (the number of ways the kills and failure can be arranged in order). This comes out to 56,250.

Recall the method for finding numbers of combinations, for x numbers taken y at a time:

(x!-((x-y)!)/y!

! means factorial; for example, 4! is equal to 4x3x2x1. If you end up with 0 over 0, the result is 1. In this application, x is the number of guns you're firing, and y is the number of failures (or sucesses, it doesn't matter) you're trying to find.

For 4 kills, 54 x 32 x (6 x 5) /(2x1)= 84,375.
And 3 kills, 53 x 33 x (6 x 5 x 4) / (3 x 2 x 1) = 67,500.

Adding them together: 15,625 + 56,250 + 84,375 + 67,500 = 223,750. The probability of killing at least 3 Space Marines is 223,750 out of 262,144, or about 85.35%.

There might be an easier way to do this, but if there is, I haven't found it yet... obviously this is best done with a good calculator and a lot of time...
« Last Edit: August 9, 2002, 08:27:52 PM by The Hive Custodian »
Calculus is an art, but algebra is attrition.

Offline Mystic511

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 282
  • I *Love* EldarOnline! No, really, i do!
    • Personal Website
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #22 on: August 9, 2002, 05:08:11 PM »
Right, so in the middle of a huge battle, where you have to kill 3 space marines to claim a table quarter, you will say to your opponent, "hold on, I need about 3 hours to calculate the possibilities of me killing that squad of yours and winning the game, cuz if it's not a good percentage i'm going to do something else."

I'm sure he'll let you.

Then you'll go and take 1/5 times  8) squared divided by  :-* , throw it into another equation of  :-X times  :-\ and that all equals  ??? .

if you dunno why i did that... then, hehe, i'm sorry.  I'm only joking.  (for some reason your equation have  8) in them. )

Offline The Hive Custodian (Retired)

  • Primojanitor Paragon
  • Ancient
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3021
  • Perfection Within; Perfection Without
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #23 on: August 9, 2002, 08:29:54 PM »
Gah! Darn smilies... interpeted my eight-parentheses as  8)!

Yeah, it's probably not a good idea to do this in the middle of a battle... unless your opponent is taking a long bathroom break...
Calculus is an art, but algebra is attrition.

Offline ValkorisZ

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 127
  • My death vindicates my purpose
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2002, 04:47:11 AM »
Are you British, or Canadian, maybe just poor. In any case, here in America where we build things too big and take too much troubble to do somply things cause we like the sounds of high tech words, we use "Calculaters" Anything above a TI-83 can calculate these percenteges in a couple of seconds. And as for the perceteges of something happening, doing it in battle is silly. In fact, if you really felt like it, you could calculate who would win a battles days in advance of playing it using some simple numbers (just gotta know the enemies army in advance) However, what you forget is tactics. Numbers are fun and all, and it burns time, but it won't win a battle for you.
The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline The Hive Custodian (Retired)

  • Primojanitor Paragon
  • Ancient
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3021
  • Perfection Within; Perfection Without
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #25 on: August 10, 2002, 02:56:42 PM »
Actually, I live in the US as well... I'm one of those people who does these things...

While impractical during a battle, I use it to draw up army lists.
Calculus is an art, but algebra is attrition.

Offline Mystic511

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 282
  • I *Love* EldarOnline! No, really, i do!
    • Personal Website
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2002, 05:15:37 PM »

Are you British, or Canadian, maybe just poor. In any case, here in America where we build things too big and take too much troubble to do somply things cause we like the sounds of high tech words, we use "Calculaters" Anything above a TI-83 can calculate these percenteges in a couple of seconds. And as for the perceteges of something happening, doing it in battle is silly. In fact, if you really felt like it, you could calculate who would win a battles days in advance of playing it using some simple numbers (just gotta know the enemies army in advance) However, what you forget is tactics. Numbers are fun and all, and it burns time, but it won't win a battle for you.


Why are you yelling at other people for using stats and percentages WHEN YOU STARTED A THREAD ABOUT STATS AND PERCENTAGES?????????  ???  ???  ???  ???

Offline xv15.

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1250
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2002, 08:59:15 PM »
You've got something against canadians? >:(
The man who makes a beast of himself,
rids himself of the pain of being a man.

Offline ValkorisZ

  • Junior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 127
  • My death vindicates my purpose
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #28 on: August 11, 2002, 04:54:16 PM »
I only posted to give a general idea. Ppl won't win a battle by the numbers! I wasn't making fun of anybody, I made fun of everybody. You cannot win a battle by the numbers. I have seen units sustain implausible large amount of casualties, and I have seen units wiped out by an amount of fire that seems laughable little. I have seen dice praised, I have seen them destoryed in more ways then one would think plausible.
The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline xv15.

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1250
Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #29 on: August 13, 2002, 09:42:24 AM »
lol, i have lost more dice than anyone, in one game against my cousin. In the first turn I....

destroyed 3 dreadnaughts (one of which was venerable)
blew 2 tanks away (vindicator and predator)
and immobilesed 1 rhino, destroying another, killing 3 in the explosion
and shook a whirlwind


I know this seems astronomical, but we were playing a last stand mission, he had twice as many points as i do. I leave with just a few words...

I LOVE railguns (accompanied by target locks)
I LOVE seeker missiles
I LOVE missile pods
I LOVE Kroot guns

The man who makes a beast of himself,
rids himself of the pain of being a man.

 


Powered by EzPortal