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Author Topic: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style  (Read 2629 times)

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Offline Blom

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Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« on: May 23, 2015, 04:20:54 PM »
Hello Gang

I will try to update the mattlers mathammer for our new eldar tanks. I will start with the Wave Serpent. English is not my native language so please help me correct any mistake I make. This is also my first mathammer try so please help me correct any mistakes in my calculations.

Assumptions and Parameters
1. Always upgrade to the Shuriken Cannon because it adds damage and Bladestorm improves target spread.
2. All weapons in range because the shortest move + weapon range is 30” (for three weapons firing).
3. Always take Holo-fields as you buy one more hull point for x points. 
4. Blast hits will be assessed at 2 hits per small marker and 5 hits per large marker, as shown by 150 trials at BS4 against a three-row, 3-4-3 infantry blob with 1” between the models.  Due to Deep Strike, the Terminators will be treated as being close enough together for the same number of hits, despite having a different base size.  Also, limit of 1 blast hit per WEQ, since that's acting as the Monstrous Creature test profile, with the appropriate base size.
5. Fire Prisms will fire their Focused blast against TEQs, their Dispersed blast against all other infantry, and their Lance against all vehicles and WEQ (the MC profile).  The Focused Fire Prism and Warp Hunter blasts hit 22/27 per blast against single large targets (chance of rolling a hit or deviating 4” or less on BSx); I'm treating the Warp Hunter blasts as hitting vehicles 22/27 of the time as well.  Yes, the Warp Hunter Barrage messes with that a bit, but it's usually beneficial.  The Dispersed shot of the Night Spinner hits large targets 5/6 of the time.
6. Explodes! results will be ignored because vehicles are more likely to be destroyed by hull point loss than damage results, especially with the new damage chart.
7. For the defensive tests, assume that the Eldar tanks are not Jinking, and the incoming shots will be from Autocannons (BS3), Missile Launchers (BS4), and Lascannons (BS4).

Targets
GEQ Imperial Guardsmen or squishier.
FEQ Fire Warriors, Dire Avengers, Swooping Hawks.
MEQ Literally half the armies in 40k, judging by the Allies Matrix.
TEQ Terminators.  I don't bother with SS/TH because you should be shooting weak guns at them (i.e., the 3++ is mostly irrelevant).
HEQ Hive Tyrant, formerly WEQ (Wraithguard).  Max 1 hit per blast, and no Ymgarl factor for optional 2+ save.
FHEQ flying Hive Tyrant
AVs 10-14 and FLs (Flyers).

Raw Numbers
The following table shows each tank's offensive efficiency expressed as points per wound/hull point inflicted, and its defensive efficiency expressed as the number hull points striped by Autocannons, Missile Launchers, or Lascannons multiply with points of the tank. "-" means that the tank as configured cannot damage the target, and "NR" means that the tank was not rated for the parameter because just by inspection it is clearly an inferior choice for that role.



   Serpent + holo +shurcan with      
   Shuriken C   S. Laser   StarCan   Lance   Missil
Points:   135        140         140     140     150
GEQ      35           38           44       58       53
FEQ       60           57           57       82       70
MEQ      78           81           63       95      101,3
TEQ      139          154         100    154      266
HEQ      130          135        105    118      127
AV10      58           50,4         74     56       60
AV11      87           75,6       111     111     119,1
AV12      174         151        222     180     192,9
AV13      -                -           -         315     506,3
AV14      -                -           -         315     1013
FL10      191             163       252     277     178
FL11      286            244       378     378     245,5
FL12      572            488       756     593     395,1
FHEQ     429            445       336    531     486
AutoC    30              31          31      31      33
Missil     30              31          31      31      33
LasC       40              41          41      41      44



Conclusions
The Starcannon is not bad. If you shoot at infantry without cover the Starcannon is the best weapon. The Scattleser is best at killing tanks (AV10-AV12). Missile launcher is still a bad (even against flying stuff). Shuricen Cannon is ok (in between Starcannon and Scattlaser agains most target) it is also the cheapest and thus the most survivable.

Edit
Help! How do I post charts without them looking like crap?

Excessive stats removed to comply with GW's copyright rules (see forum rule 1 for more details) - Iris.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 08:11:30 AM by Blom »
Hi there

Offline Fenris

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2015, 05:14:18 PM »
I'd have to disagree with 1,3 & 6, here is why:

1. Taking the underslung cannon has never been a no-brainer for me.
3. The holofields are not at all as good as before IMHO, since you can almost always jink for a better save.
1 & 3. If you take neither of these, the twin-linked catapults gets closer to the cannon how much damage they do when jinking.
Since the big weapon is also twin-linked on Wave serpents jinking would be even less of a concern, and even more so when aiming at flyers with anything but the EML.

6. The chance to explode things on the first shot is actually quite importantant for the lances, especially on a platform with only one shot, since if you only get a hull point in the damage result you can finish off the vehicle with other units, then have the lance aimed at a fresh target next turn.
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Offline Spectral Arbor

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2015, 09:48:34 PM »
RE: How to make tables that don't look like crap.

This is the link to a "How-to" guide for BBC coding. About halfway through the first post is where tables start.

How To Use Bullentin Board Coding (BBC) [how to post an image, and more]

It's not terribly hard to do, just awkward and time consuming. Send yourself a Personal Message to test a table before you post it, if you're nervous. :) I'm pretty sure there's another sticky post, specifically about formatting tables, but I can't find it.

Offline Alienscar

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2015, 05:04:29 AM »
Have a look at this post for a handy guide on how to create a table. Alternatively find a post with a table then copy the table after you have pressed the quote button.
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Offline Grizzlykin

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2015, 05:21:28 AM »
Excuse me I am at totall loss. Never saw mathhammer before, how does it work? What does it mean? So far i understood the smaller the number the better, but what does those number stand for?
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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2015, 05:26:05 AM »
The instructions outlined in the topic Spectral Arbor linked to are comprehensive and will help.  The best way I found to learn how to make a table using bbcode though was to copy somebody else's and learn from there.  Also, if you want to see what your table looks like before posting it, use the Preview button (found between Post and Spell Check) to see your post before it is uploaded to the forum, and you will be able to make changes if you desire :).

Excuse me I am at totall loss. Never saw mathhammer before, how does it work? What does it mean? So far i understood the smaller the number the better, but what does those number stand for?

I played the game for more than twenty years without referring to any of these complicated tables, so if you find them unhelpful or confusing, don't worry about it :).  The maths doesn't usually tell you anything that you don't already know from experience of playing 40K on the table.
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Offline Grizzlykin

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2015, 05:37:32 AM »
Thk iris, well i basicly prefer to play what i wnt and try building strategies to make them work after this^^
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Offline khaine

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2015, 08:11:12 AM »
Excuse me I am at totall loss. Never saw mathhammer before, how does it work? What does it mean? So far i understood the smaller the number the better, but what does those number stand for?

The number stands for how many points you are spending for each wound you inflict on a specific enemy in one turn. In basic terms if a 10pt model has a 25% chance to cause 1 wound then statistically you're looking at 40pts worth of models per wound. Of course you could fire 40 models with a 25% chance and not do anything.

However this approach applies to a very specific load out, used in a specific way, at a specific enemy that is acting in a specific way and makes very little allowance for things like the table, your opponent or the enemy army as an entity. It's very... errr... specific.  ;)

We all use Mathhammer to a point, at some point you'll work out that a Lascannon has a better chance of destroying a Landraider than a Missile launcher and that firing a Bolter at the same Landraider is just wear and tear on the dice.

Some people swear by Mathhammmer  :), some swear at it  >:(. It's a good tool for looking at a very small snap shot of what can be.  ???

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Offline Spectral Arbor

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2015, 03:51:55 PM »
Mathammer, or the attempt to apply statistical analysis to the game of 40k, is a tool in the box, so to speak.

Understanding the mathematics behind how the game plays gives you a more accurate means of planning your attacks. If you know that [completely made up numbers] a trio of Autocannons has a 75% chance to inflict 2 or more HP against an AV 11 vehicle, you can be pretty confident that if it's out in the open, and has already taken a HP of damage, you probably only need to attack with the one unit to deal with it. So you could potentially move a second / third unit away to attack something else, reasonably confident that the single unit will be sufficient.

That could be important if you have a secondary target unit that you need to deal with, but don't have enough without committing the extra resources.

If you follow what I'm getting at, a strong understanding / memory for statistics can help you to make the best possible decisions in the game. It can give you an edge against someone that's going with a "gut feeling" about the situation. Not necessarily, and luck still plays a role... and if you smear goat blood on your dice the night before then the Gods of Hope and Wishing will carry you through, regardless of the stupid decisions you make in game, so such knowledge is completely worthless in the eyes of some.

But if you aren't into ritual sacrifice, or you just don't want to make a mess of your carpet! You can get an edge in-game with the application of Mathammer. It can also help in the list-building phase of your game, by helping you take units that most efficiently fulfill the role you want filled. This applies not just to how much damage a unit can deal to a target, though that is the most common use. It can be things like, "Which is a more efficient bullet sponge, Ogryns or Conscripts?" You might want to use infantry to screen a tank, and that's their main goal. So you'd be looking at durability of your own unit for the least investment, so that the unit you choose can withstand the greatest amount of... Gauss Blasters... to pick a weapon. The idea being that so long as you have a couple Ogryns, or 5 Conscripts, they can provide a cover save to your Russ.

So you calculate how much damage that 30 shots can do to Ogryns, and then how much damage they can do to Conscripts... figure out how many points you lose per turn on average... and then pick Conscripts because they're dirt cheap and that's a perfect job for them. :) If that's the purpose you need a unit for, you can use Mathammer to calculate the better unit for a task.

It doesn't factor movement, or other myriad forces at work. For example, Meltaguns are always preferred to Lascannons at short range, but can you consistently get there? Many times, Lascannons are better because you can attack at range, from the first turn, instead of needing to get into position [Questionable, as a Guardsman!] for a couple turns. So Mathammer is a tool to help you pick units, but you still need to apply the numbers with wisdom.

Like all tools, their worth is dependant upon the hands crafting with them. A master craftsman can be limited by poor tools, but that same master with masterwork tools can craft incredible things. That said, a novice with masterwork tools is still a novice, limited by their skill. So yeah, the ideal of Mathammer isn't clairvoyance of the future. Expecting it to give you perfect prediction [Especially when relying on averages!] will lead to disappointment. Ideally, you are simply aware of the risks you are taking, and are then able to wisely judge that against your rewards of given actions.

That said, I've never been a strong believer in "points / damage" as it's a cart before the horse thing... but Mattler and I had that discussion a long time ago. Although Explodes are rare, they should still be factored into their potential, which pure HP stripping doesn't account for. So there's another aspect to consider, whether or not you agree to the premises presented in the statistics. In this case, I don't agree that the points / damage system is accurate, since it doesn't account for Explodes results.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 03:55:23 PM by Spectral Arbor »

Offline Blom

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2015, 04:11:30 PM »
Hello again

Thanks for all the help! I did not manage to create a table (was too stupid to understand how:) but the table should look more or less ok now.

Also thanks to Fenris for the feedback.
Regarding explosions and AP2. I did not know any good way to include explosions in the calculation. The chance of an explosion at the right moment is only 1/6. Starcannon is also an AP2 weapon by the way. This means that Starcannon is better at destroying AV10 – AV11 than the charts show.

Fenris is also probably right in the idea that the Wave Serpent as a gun boat is dead. We now have better platforms to deploy scattlasers (bikes) so the serpent can focus on the delivery of our improved infantry. But if you for some reason what your Wave Serpent to act as a gun boat then I feel that the cannon and the holo field really helps.

I did all this mathammer to get a feel for the new weapon load outs. Is the scattlaser still the no brainer (no it is not). Is the missile launcher finally worth taking (no it is not). Does the Starcannon still suck (no it does not). How does the Shuriken Cannon compare to the Scattlaser and the Starcannon (it is right between the two). All in all I feel that GW has made a good job of balancing the price for the weapons (better than last Codex at least).

And finally I do not play very much (so I do not have a “feeling” about what weapon that does what). I love to paint however, and mathammer helps me to pick new weapons to my tanks.

If I get the time I will try to do more mathammer stuff. I will probably start with all the tanks

Regards
Blom
Hi there

Offline Spectral Arbor

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2015, 06:07:49 PM »
Oh dear Emperor, the game stats! Better wash those off quickly. :)

You could reasonably treat an explodes as 3 HP, since that should kill most vehicles. Of course, that's not perfectly accurate either, as an Explodes result might only take 2 HP off a Rhino if it has already lost an HP. In any case, it at least recognizes the impact in some way. Some vehicles only have 2 HP, while others have 4 or more.

AP 2 / AP1 weapons can increase the odds of inflicting multiple HP's of damage to super-heavies, such as Imperial Knights. That has been important, in my experience. That's one of the reasons I'm not overly fond of points / damage. There's no way to properly determine the value that an explodes result has. If you reflect on it, you could strip 4 HP off a Super-Heavy with penetrating Melta-hits. You have an 80% chance that at least one of them would generate extra HP's of damage. If even one of those "extra HP" rolls a "2" for the bonus damage, you'd take that Knight down with significantly less effort than if you used Krak Missiles instead.

Something to think about.



PS: I found that link, appropriately titled...

Guide to Tables

« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 06:27:50 PM by Spectral Arbor »

Offline shabbadoo

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2015, 04:06:22 AM »
If you go with an anti-armor/anti-high Toughness weapon for your Wave Serpent turret (i.e. bright lance, Eldar missile launcher), the underslung shuriken cannon is not a good option as it just won't add much in the way of effectiveness and generally will be wasted on such targets the main turret weapon will be going after (though it certainly goes better with the multi-purpose Eldar missile launcher than the bright lance configuration).  Now, if you go for a turret weapon which is not geared toward killing armor/high Toughness critters, such as the twin-linked scatter lasers or shuriken cannons, the underslung shuriken cannon makes much sense, as it nearly doubles the effectiveness of that application for minimal cost. It is a decent companion weapon to twin-linked starcannons as well due to Str 6/bladestorm. Units with dedicated purposes are more effective/efficient, and that is kind of what the Eldar are all about.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2015, 08:22:25 PM by shabbadoo »

Offline Fenris

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2015, 01:22:05 PM »
The math for the explosions is not that hard, for a lance against AV10 each hit strips 0.83HP which is the number I guess you are using.

When calculating explosions you need to know how many HP the target has left, and as the majority of the vehicles has 3HP to start with the average number left then is 2HP. There are also more 2HP vehicles than 4HP vehicles, which would tilt the average slightly below 2HP but then there are superheavies and clever targeting, which should probably bump it up over 2HP again, but I think 2HP left is a good assumption comparable to the assumptions of how models are hit from a blast marker.

With this in mind that lance vs AV10 will have to be calculated like this:
a lance hit has a 1/6 chance to glance and 4/6 chance to pen, of those 4/6 there is a 1/6 chance to get an explode(=2HP). 4/6*1/6= 1/9 = 0.11
0.83+0.11=0.94HP which is roughly a 13.3% increase in damage.

The reason I didn't mention the starcannon, is because it does not rely as much on getting penetrating hits as the lance. Against AV10 the starcannon would have a 2*1/6 chance to glance and 2*2/6 chance to pen. But you initial average for the starcannons number of HP stripped is 1.00HP (since 2*3/6 = 1)
Since the number of pens are equal we can just copy the calculations from above and get 1.00+0.11=1.11HP
which is a 11% increase in damage.
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Offline Dev Null

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2015, 12:49:46 PM »
I've always preferred "% chance for a kill" when comparing weapon damage against vehicles, since ultimately, if it aint dead, it's shooting back.  That allows you to take Destroyed results into account quite easily.  That said, I won't be updating my spreadsheet for vehicle kills anytime soon; I'm in deep lurker mode and haven't played since 6th ed.

I think the value of Mathammer is in working out some of the less intuitive things that emerge out of the rules complexity.  "Oh, that combo that seemed like it should be good as anti-flyer is actually kind of crap against flyers," kind of thing.  Once you work that out, you remember the lesson and throw the numbers away.  I don't think anyone out there is really playing with a table full of statistics in front of them.

Offline The Mattler

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Re: Matthammer the Wave Serpent the Mattler style
« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2015, 12:59:59 PM »
I think the value of Mathammer is in working out some of the less intuitive things that emerge out of the rules complexity.  "Oh, that combo that seemed like it should be good as anti-flyer is actually kind of crap against flyers," kind of thing.  Once you work that out, you remember the lesson and throw the numbers away.  I don't think anyone out there is really playing with a table full of statistics in front of them.
Agreed.  The point of the calculations is to improve one's ability to evaluate units in likely circumstances in order to make faster, more accurate estimates of tactical value in-game.  As much as I grind through the numbers, my focus is primarily on selecting unit roles in my lists, and once they're on the table top I only have to remember each unit's strengths and weaknesses in broad terms.
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