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Author Topic: Close Combat Probability  (Read 1707 times)

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Offline Algavinn of the Many Paths

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Close Combat Probability
« on: October 5, 2005, 11:42:04 PM »
well i finally found a place to host these tables and i will have to look over the pistol probability sheet before i link that one, but for the moment i have the close combat weapons probability sheet up.  the link to it is bellow.  these tables are made to help an army builder by comparatively looking at the probabilities pertaining to each piece of weaponry/unit/enemy units to help you choose which will be best to take.  the explination of the tables is at the bottom of the page, in the link, i dont think i left anything unexplained.  if any questions, please ask.  i will copy paste the explination in this post as well.


http://www.geocities.com/algavinnorochimaru/CloseCombatStatistics.doc








These graphs are designed to show you the probable number of wounds you will get against various opponents with each harlequin unit and the different weapons available to it to help you decide which weapon is statistically the best to equip for the enemies you face.  It also helps you choose if that set of powerblades, or that troupeleader is worth taking over another troupe member, and similar questions.

Each set of graphs is divided into three sections.  The left being for characters (the Solitaire, Great Harlequin, and Shadowseer), the middle section is for troupe leaders and the right is for troupe members.  In each of the above sections, there is a line for each of the various weapons available to that kind of unit.  These are the Harlequins Kiss, Power weapon and Riverblades, Powerblades, and close combat weapon/shuriken pistol combo.  The four rows at the top mean the following, from top to bottom: The probability for each attack to hit, the probability for each attack to wound, the probability that the enemy will fail with his armour save and the final number is the most probable number of wounds caused per attack.  As an example, let us say you are attacking a tyranid termagaunt (T3SV6+) with a character equipped with a harlequins kiss.  So you have your one attack multiplied by the chance to hit (1x0.66=0.66) and that multiplied by the chance to wound (0.66x0.86=0.57) and then multiple the result of that by the chance they will fail their armour save (0.57x0.86=0.49) which gives you the number of wounds you will most likely cause per attack, in this situation it being 0.49.  Now this number you multiply by the number of attacks available to the unit (or the entire troupe) with a certain weapon and compare it to the other available options to help decide what is best/worth it for the points you are spending.  The last section of these boxes is the number of wounds they will most likely cause against each opponent, with their full attacks.  These are abbreviated.  Sol r= solitaire rushing, Sol nr= solitaire not rushing, Grt r= great harlequin rushing, Grt nr=great harlequin not rushing, Shd r=shadowseer rushing, Shd nr= shadowseer not rushing.  The letter u (units) after the numbers I use to distinguish that it is the finished product indicating the number of probable wounds.
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Offline InfinityCircuit

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #1 on: October 6, 2005, 09:29:06 AM »
I don't understand the value of this without factoring in points cost...care to explain?

Offline Algavinn of the Many Paths

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #2 on: October 6, 2005, 02:39:49 PM »
points cost is only a related matter.  this is designed to help you decide which equipment and weapons are best used when you have a known, or unknown opponent.  ie; is it going to give you more chance to kill your enemy by taking a troupe leader with powerblades instead of another troupe member?  is it better to have a harlequins kiss or power weapon on a troupe member to fight against a space marine, an imperial guard, or a terminator.  points are mostly to decide what you may take at max, and your points spread (like a carnage mission with heavy cover you may want characters instead of more troupe members for concentration of points, or on a meat grinder mission where you may want to be able soak up more damage by taking more troupe members to survive longer)  mind you the tables and explination may not be very clear, which is why i invite questions on it, as i have been sick for a number of days and it was later at night when it was posted.
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Offline InfinityCircuit

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #3 on: October 7, 2005, 10:40:02 AM »
I don't understand your logic.  If points cost is only related, why don't we all play Deathwing?  Should people only play Orc Goffs, since Nobs are very strong?

Offline Algavinn of the Many Paths

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #4 on: October 7, 2005, 11:19:02 AM »
I said points was only a related matter.  I did not say it isn't important.  This tool is not made for dealing with points and deciding them because this site requests that I do not include things with individual point values, otherwise I would attempt to cover that as well in this topic.  If my 'logic' is not understandable to you, I appologize as I do not believe I can make it any clearer.
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Offline InfinityCircuit

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #5 on: October 7, 2005, 07:05:20 PM »
I said points was only a related matter.  I did not say it isn't important.  This tool is not made for dealing with points and deciding them because this site requests that I do not include things with individual point values, otherwise I would attempt to cover that as well in this topic.  If my 'logic' is not understandable to you, I appologize as I do not believe I can make it any clearer.

I apologize myself for any problems.  You could easily incorporate points cost by simply posting the results, without all the intervening mathematics.  I just doubt the value of your spending your time on something that only looks at a single dimension of the issue!

Offline Algavinn of the Many Paths

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #6 on: October 7, 2005, 11:06:31 PM »
it is still a part of the issue.  i see many peoples lists for fighting against marines and equip themselves with both a harlequins kiss and a power weapon instead of 2 power weapons, or elect to take a HK instead of powerblades against a low save high toughness target, where statistically speaking they are not the best choice, and yes i can easily be said to be nitpicking but the harlequins are such a        d devistating force if the general is good enough to get them to the enemy and have them equipped properly.  As it is said with harlequins that if they do not brake the enemies back the moment they jump upon it, they will eventually loose.  being equiped properly is part of that problem.  how much equipment you can take, or the equipment to troupe ratio is a different decision then knowing what kinds of equipment you need, or should take.  my point of posting this and my analysis post, and my armies being an example of them, is to make a force which (if you know your opponent, say the same people that u play against 1 or two weekends a month) that is capable of doing the quickest, strongest, and most efficient damage against any given enemy. It is part of the eldar mindset, the harlequin one especially, to preserve as many of their lives as possible.  this is a tool to help make army lists and to help the harlequin commander understand his army better, and how exactly each piece of equipment functions in its respective role.
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Offline small_furry_spider

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2005, 12:45:56 PM »
Infinity Circuit, I think you are missing the point. In fact, incorporating points would make the tables less useful, as there is no way you could allow for all possible points combinations you might want to field in a list, and it would hide some of the current information. This way, you can set up any list you want and then see how well it should perform , and do the same with any other list you want to make.  If anyone does want to compare cost effectiveness, it is very easy to do for 2 given units, working out the kills in the first place is the difficult bit. As Algavinn says, the tables are to help prevent people from fielding less effective lists without realising it

Offline troup leader

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2005, 05:48:50 PM »
points shomoits! my roommate is a very gifted computer programer. he sat down one day and wrote a program which told him the proabilty of sucess in hand to hand combat. beleave it or not the hive tyrant was the #1 winner in his senerion. there was one little thing that his programe did not compute and that is luck. building an army is fun! build your army on what you like and what fits good with a paticular theme. craeting a list of satistics and playing what works best mathmaticaly might win you a few battles, but will also take away some of your own personal zing from the army.

Offline Algavinn of the Many Paths

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2005, 01:27:26 AM »
small_furry_spider   thank you thank you thank you!, i had givn up on som one actually understanding how i was trying to use these.  That is precisely right.  It is to compare equippment for the units you have to se what will do best against your (or any given) opponent, and even which units will do best.  i dont think it takes any flair out of the game becuse it doesnt change the style you choose, or the objective you must complete, etc.   i find it to be very helpful, more than anything to understand the fundamentals of the true value of these weapons and equippment.  there are more than one choice of equippment and squad for a reason.  thank you guys for the comments, especially small_furry_spider.
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Offline InfinityCircuit

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2005, 10:05:58 AM »
If anyone does want to compare cost effectiveness, it is very easy to do for 2 given units, working out the kills in the first place is the difficult bit.

But it isn't.  To achieve accurate results Lanchaster's Law of the Square must be factored in, which makes usage of these tables a bit cumbersome.  My point is that it would be much simpler for everyone if this rule was entered.

Offline small_furry_spider

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Re: Close Combat Probability
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2005, 11:28:12 AM »
AFAIK, this is not the case. Lanchester's law appiles only to the number of units, not their relative powers (apart from the ancient/modern distinction) so comparing the equipment of two different units is perfectly reasonable without the use of such laws.

I am also not sure how such laws hold up in 40k with the vast range of technological ability and the strange combination of ancient and modern warfare (high tech shooting and hitting people with clubs).

 


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