News: No news is good news...

Login  |  Register

Author Topic: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math  (Read 2783 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline MechTau

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 34
  • Country: us
  • Eldar for the Eldar God!
  • Armies: Tau, Eldar
Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« on: October 22, 2017, 06:54:28 PM »
Ulthwe bonus is a 6+ FNP to everything.

That means that aside from units that already have one, that it doesn't work with (Farseer, Avatar, any Vehicle with Spirit Stones), essentially gets 16% more wounds. More survive, more stay on the field.

Biel-Tan gives something like  20% increase in outgoing shots on Shuriken weapons, which is great if you have the Shuriken Cannon spam and Dire Avengers.

Alaitoc has -1 to hit beyond 12"

Is Alaitoc, mathematically, equivalent to Ulthwe in terms of being 16% more survive, more stay on the field, but only from ranged weapons beyond 12"?

I'm thinking about the total wounds given as Hits * Wounds * Saves * FNP rolls, where it's all commutitive, mathematically, so it doesn't matter if you increase the Wounds by 16%, or the FNP rolls by 16%, it doesn't matter, it's just 1/6th better one way or the other.

Am I wrong? What's going on? Why are people saying that Alaitoc is so good or that Ulthwe is so bad?

Offline Partninja

  • Warlock
  • Lazerous Penguin
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2731
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 07:02:39 PM »
Alaitoc bonus can stack with things that have a similar rule (Rangers, vectored engines, stratagems, psychic powers) where as the Ulthwe FnP does not.

However, the ulthwe FnP is better if you're running a lot of multiwound models (vehicles, wraithguard, jetbikes).
« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 07:05:19 PM by Partninja »

Offline Gildaheir

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 40
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2017, 07:07:38 PM »
Are you accounting for the fact that the -1 can help you avoid more wounds by canceling shots from multi-damage weapons? For instance, a lascannon does 6 damage. With the -1, that lascannon has a 16% greater chance to miss and negates all 6 hypothetical wounds. The FNP merely saves one of the 6 wounds.

Honestly, I don't think Ulthwe is all that bad. They also sound like their warlord trait and relics are strong. 

Offline magenb

  • Aspect Warrior
  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2162
  • Country: au
  • I *LOVE* 40k Online!
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2017, 07:23:11 PM »
So -1 vs 1/6 save 10 bolter shots vs DA's at more than 12'

6 FNP = 1.85 unsaves wounds
-1 to hit = 1.67 unsaved wounds.

AT less than 12 (20 shots)
6 FNP = 3.70 unsaved wounds
no minus to hit = 4.44 unsaved wounds.

It will really depend on your play style, heavy assault armies will find Ulthwe bettter through out the game, where as a speedy long range shooty army will be better off as Alaitoc. A slow shooty will be better with Ulthwe because they can't stop them from getting within 12'.


Alot of stuff that gets shot by lascannons generally has on option to take a spirit stone any way.





Offline Fenris

  • Aspect Warrior
  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2169
  • Country: se
  • Armies: Eldar, Dark Eldar, Aeldari
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2017, 08:27:10 PM »
I don't think you can look at the craftworld traits alone, you need to consider the craftworld specific warlord traits and stratagems too.

Ulthwé & Biel-Tan have really strong warlord traits.

Biel-Tan has the most versatile specific stratagem IMO as it can apply to more units than any of the others. Saim-Hann & Iyanden comes in second in this category, where Ulthwé and Alaitoc has an even more narrow choice of units to buff.

However if we are to look at the craftworld traits alone I would say Ulthwé, just don't bring a farseer, Avatar or take spiritstones.
Concerning Alaitoc:
Within 12" is where things hurt the most, due to all rapid fire guns out there (bolters).
Sure you could use the Alaitoc stratagem(pathinders), but against rangers your adversary are already hitting them on -1, so they are actually the worst unit to use it on, it also doesn't work against autohit weapons.

Sadly several of these have the weird function, that the whole is less than the sum of it's parts if you play fluffy armies.

Personally I'm eager to try Biel-Tan Striking Scorpions with "Court of the young king" charging a unit in cover.

Edit: oh the math..
BS3+ is the most common, so -1 would make your units 25% more durable, where 6+++ would make your units 1/6th  or 16.6667% more durable. re-rolling 1's on shuriken weapons only increases the damage by 1/6th or 16.6667%.
Alaitoc one works 12+", Biel-Tan: 1+" on a specific range of weaponry, Ulthwé: always works.
Now decide how often wounds are received
in CC,  from 12+" shooting or from all shuriken shooting dealt.

Then compare them to eachother, and multiply those fractions with each percentage above.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 08:40:45 PM by Fenris »
Ego in propria persona, non compos mentis.

Offline Partninja

  • Warlock
  • Lazerous Penguin
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2731
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2017, 09:49:42 PM »
I'm in a weird spot with the traits.

If I'm running Saim-hann with a lot of bikes and skimmers I can use their speed to keep 12" away so I'd prefer to use the Alaitoc rules. I'm still putting shuriken cannons in my bikes and even my vypers so maybe even Biel-tan.

If I'm running a lot of wraithguard and vehicles the Ulthwe trait is pretty appealing due to having multiple wounds. Even with some jetbike support they can also benefit. The Iyanden stratagems are more appealing though.

I can't wait to start fielding various combinations to see how things shake out.

Offline The Mattler

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 250
  • Country: ca
  • Armies: Eldar
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2017, 08:12:06 AM »
Alaitoc's trait even stronger than Fenris is saying because, while it's true that it reduces incoming damage by 25% against BS 3+ and by 33% against BS 4+, in order to figure out how many extra shots it takes to inflict the same damage (and so find the true increase in durability), you have to multiply by the reciprocal of the fraction of damage that does get through.  It looks like this:

vs. BS 3+, 4/3 = 1.33 = 33% more resilient.
vs. BS 4+, 3/2 = 1.50 = 50% more resilient.

For the same reason, the Avatar's layered defenses actually give it an effective wound count of 18 against AP -4 weapons, but because its profile has less than 10, it's difficult to target.  That kind layering is also provided by the Ulthwe attribute, which really makes everything without such an ability take 6/5 = 1.20 = 20% more damage to destroy, so that's also a bigger boost than one might initially intuit.

Alaitoc is SUPER strong.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2017, 10:20:07 AM by The Mattler »
Shuriken weaponry is the pinnacle of antiSpocklizardry in 40k.

Offline SeekingOne

  • Exarch
  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1509
  • Country: ru
  • May Hoeth guide our ways...
  • Armies: Eldar (Saim-Hann), Space Wolves
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2017, 05:37:37 PM »
That kind layering is also provided by the Ulthwe attribute, which really makes everything without such an ability take 6/5 = 1.20 = 20% more damage to destroy, so that's also a bigger boost than one might initially intuit.

Alaitoc is SUPER strong.

Hi Mattler :)
You're right about Alaitoc but not quite right about Ulthwe. Extra 1/6 chance to save a wound is just that, a flat 17% durability increase. That's because no matter what's the base chance of a model to suffer a wound, extra 6+ save decreases that chance by 17%. There's no hidden layering to it.
I fight against Chaos and for Order, because it means fighting for Life against Death. There is no other battle truly worth fighting.

"If it's not for a tournament then play whatever it is that you like. Without the pressure of having to utterly destroy your opponent it opens up alot more opportunity to have fun." - Lazarus

Offline The Mattler

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 250
  • Country: ca
  • Armies: Eldar
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2017, 06:25:41 PM »
Hi Mattler :)
You're right about Alaitoc but not quite right about Ulthwe. Extra 1/6 chance to save a wound is just that, a flat 17% durability increase. That's because no matter what's the base chance of a model to suffer a wound, extra 6+ save decreases that chance by 17%. There's no hidden layering to it.
It layers because it happens after the save, rather than as a replacement for the save. 5/6 chance to ignore the wound after a save results in 6/5 more inflicted wounds required to do the same damage, so that's a 20% boost to resilience.  You're right in that it's independent, which is why it ends up being the same boost across the board (unless there's a better "ignore wound" ability at work).
Shuriken weaponry is the pinnacle of antiSpocklizardry in 40k.

Offline SeekingOne

  • Exarch
  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1509
  • Country: ru
  • May Hoeth guide our ways...
  • Armies: Eldar (Saim-Hann), Space Wolves
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2017, 06:38:59 PM »

It layers because it happens after the save, rather than as a replacement for the save. 5/6 chance to ignore the wound after a save results in 6/5 more inflicted wounds required to do the same damage, so that's a 20% boost to resilience.  You're right in that it's independent, which is why it ends up being the same boost across the board (unless there's a better "ignore wound" ability at work).

It's a technicality :) we're counting from opposite ends, so to speak.

Here's how I see it:
We start without 6+ save. So, suppose that from whatever enemy salvo, some CWE unit suffers 10 wounds on average. Now we add in that extra 6+ save, and the average number of wounds becomes 10*5/6=~8.33, which means that the unit will on average take 1.67 wounds less. 1.67 wounds is ~17% of the initial 10 wounds - hence the 17% decrease.
Now, 1.67 wounds will be 20% of 8.33, but 8.33 is not what we had initially.
I fight against Chaos and for Order, because it means fighting for Life against Death. There is no other battle truly worth fighting.

"If it's not for a tournament then play whatever it is that you like. Without the pressure of having to utterly destroy your opponent it opens up alot more opportunity to have fun." - Lazarus

Offline The Mattler

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 250
  • Country: ca
  • Armies: Eldar
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2017, 11:14:12 PM »
It's a technicality :) we're counting from opposite ends, so to speak.

Here's how I see it:
We start without 6+ save. So, suppose that from whatever enemy salvo, some CWE unit suffers 10 wounds on average. Now we add in that extra 6+ save, and the average number of wounds becomes 10*5/6=~8.33, which means that the unit will on average take 1.67 wounds less. 1.67 wounds is ~17% of the initial 10 wounds - hence the 17% decrease.
Now, 1.67 wounds will be 20% of 8.33, but 8.33 is not what we had initially.
Fair enough, although with that 6+ save in place, the enemy needs 20% more firepower to bring the damage inflicted back up to 10 wounds. :) 

I guess these days I'm just in the habit of framing buffs and debuffs in terms of how much a unit gains or loses, so I talk about resilience as having more effective wounds instead of as damage reduction.  Doing so also reflects how many more enemy resources are required to inflict the same number of casualties on your units.
Shuriken weaponry is the pinnacle of antiSpocklizardry in 40k.

Offline Fenris

  • Aspect Warrior
  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2169
  • Country: se
  • Armies: Eldar, Dark Eldar, Aeldari
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2017, 04:26:23 AM »
What if we do it like this:
10 Marines fire bolters on a unit of 10 Guardians from 18"
with no trait that would be:
10*2/3*2/3*2/3 = 2,96 dead (100%)
with Alitoc:
10/2*2/3*2/3 = 2,22 dead (75%)
with Ulthwé:
10*2/3*2/3*2/3*5/6 = 2,47 dead (83%)

Guardians shooting the marines @12":
no trait: 20*2/3/6*5/6 + 20*2/3/3/3 = 3,33 dead (100%)
Biel-Tan:(20*2/3 + 20/6*2/3)/6*5/6 + (20*2/3 + 20/6*2/3)/3/3 = 3,89 dead (117%)

Still it does take 33% more firepower to kill the same amount of guardians from alaitoc, and only 20% more killing Ulthwé. It's a matter of point of view.
With this PoV you could say non biel-tan does 14%(1-100/117)or 1/7th less damage, which is just as true as saying biel-tan does 17% or 1/6th more damage than others.

Ego in propria persona, non compos mentis.

Offline The Mattler

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 250
  • Country: ca
  • Armies: Eldar
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2017, 11:35:19 AM »
One thing we haven't mentioned so far in this thread that makes the Alaitoc attribute even more powerful is that re-rolls occur before modifiers.  -X to hit excludes the affected dice from re-rolls if their result is within X of failure.
Shuriken weaponry is the pinnacle of antiSpocklizardry in 40k.

Offline SeekingOne

  • Exarch
  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1509
  • Country: ru
  • May Hoeth guide our ways...
  • Armies: Eldar (Saim-Hann), Space Wolves
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2017, 12:56:50 PM »
One thing we haven't mentioned so far in this thread that makes the Alaitoc attribute even more powerful is that re-rolls occur before modifiers.  -X to hit excludes the affected dice from re-rolls if their result is within X of failure.

Funnily enough, because of this the effect of -1 to hit remains precisely the same regardless of whether the opponent has rerolls or not. I.e. with or without rerolls it's still -25% hits for base BS3+ and -33% hits for base BS4+. If the opponent were getting full rerolls, the relative effect of -1 to hit would've been much smaller with rerolls than without them.
I fight against Chaos and for Order, because it means fighting for Life against Death. There is no other battle truly worth fighting.

"If it's not for a tournament then play whatever it is that you like. Without the pressure of having to utterly destroy your opponent it opens up alot more opportunity to have fun." - Lazarus

Offline Kora

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 19
  • Country: us
  • I *LOVE* 40k Online!
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2017, 02:54:43 PM »
one question, is it worth taking spirit stones (and paying for them basically) if you field an army using the ulthwe craftworld trait.   I am asking because under spirit stones and the ghost helm, is specifically says wounds and mortal wounds, you get the save against it, but with ulthwe it just says when you take a wound roll a dice to ignore it.  Does that mean mortal wounds are not affected, or are they because you take the mortal one, but the save isn't specifically a save against it from armor or wargear, just you take the wound.   Then because you took a wound, you then roll and if you get a 6 you ignore it?   

part of me is wondering because that free's me up about 20 points in my army on two spirit stones, so i can spend those points elsewhere.   Also I am curious as to how that works as I haven't had that many games of 8th (maybe 5 or 6) and none of them really dealt with mortal wounds. 

Offline Blazinghand

  • Warlock | Master of the Ravenwing
  • Lazerous Penguin
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Country: us
  • Die for the Emperor or die trying!
  • Armies: Eldar, Orks
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2017, 03:42:03 PM »
The Ulthwé craftworld trait applies to all wounds suffered and does not stack with similar things. It adds literally nothing to put spirit stones on an Ulthwé vehicle, so you should never do this.
Quote from: Howard Zinn
There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people.

Offline Bego

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 56
  • Country: de
  • Armies: Eldar
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2017, 03:52:47 PM »
one question, is it worth taking spirit stones (and paying for them basically) if you field an army using the ulthwe craftworld trait.   I am asking because under spirit stones and the ghost helm, is specifically says wounds and mortal wounds, you get the save against it, but with ulthwe it just says when you take a wound roll a dice to ignore it.  Does that mean mortal wounds are not affected, or are they because you take the mortal one, but the save isn't specifically a save against it from armor or wargear, just you take the wound.   Then because you took a wound, you then roll and if you get a 6 you ignore it?   

part of me is wondering because that free's me up about 20 points in my army on two spirit stones, so i can spend those points elsewhere.   Also I am curious as to how that works as I haven't had that many games of 8th (maybe 5 or 6) and none of them really dealt with mortal wounds.

The wording of GW is really painful with how many versions of 'ignore wounds' exist. I've addressed that question at their Facebook page, being aware that the answer might still be suspicious. However, their answer referred to an existing FAQ of a similiar Death Guard ability and that one was explained as also affecting both normal and mortal wounds.

That leaves two versions in general, one affecting normal and mortal wounds (e.g. Spirit stones + Ulthwe trait), the other affecting only mortal wounds (e.g. Ghosthelm).

Offline Grand Master Lomandalis

  • Grand Master of the Deathwing | Oh the lolmanity! | 40kOnline's Care Bear of LOL!
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11372
  • Country: ca
  • We were murderers first, last, and always!
  • Armies: Dark Angels, Custodes, Knights, Night Lords
Re: Analysis of Craftworld Bonuses - Question about the math
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2017, 05:41:27 PM »
one question, is it worth taking spirit stones (and paying for them basically) if you field an army using the ulthwe craftworld trait.   I am asking because under spirit stones and the ghost helm, is specifically says wounds and mortal wounds, you get the save against it, but with ulthwe it just says when you take a wound roll a dice to ignore it.  Does that mean mortal wounds are not affected, or are they because you take the mortal one, but the save isn't specifically a save against it from armor or wargear, just you take the wound.   Then because you took a wound, you then roll and if you get a 6 you ignore it?   

part of me is wondering because that free's me up about 20 points in my army on two spirit stones, so i can spend those points elsewhere.   Also I am curious as to how that works as I haven't had that many games of 8th (maybe 5 or 6) and none of them really dealt with mortal wounds.

The wording of GW is really painful with how many versions of 'ignore wounds' exist. I've addressed that question at their Facebook page, being aware that the answer might still be suspicious. However, their answer referred to an existing FAQ of a similiar Death Guard ability and that one was explained as also affecting both normal and mortal wounds.

That leaves two versions in general, one affecting normal and mortal wounds (e.g. Spirit stones + Ulthwe trait), the other affecting only mortal wounds (e.g. Ghosthelm).
I don't see where anything is suspicious.  In every instance except for Ulthwe, there is no caveat that it can't work with other abilities.  Ulthwe specifies otherwise.
If there is anything that recent politics has taught us, it is that quotes taken out of context can mean what ever you want them to.
Well I always liked the globals...
I knew I had fans!!!

Quote
"Dark Angels are Traitors" is the 40k equivalent of Flat Earthers.  You can provide all of the proof you want that says otherwise, but people just can't let it go...

 


Powered by EzPortal