Topic: Markerlight Cascading

[Wyddr]

I'm coming down on the side of Sleight on this one (I know--weird, right?). The benefit is relatively negligible in most scenarios (the difference of maybe one markerlight hit) and, besides, there aren't a lot of units that require more than 3-4 markerlight hits to make them go away. I can envision the rare occurrence where this might pay off, but only if the numbers get stacked. No point in building a list to do this, in my opinion. Too gimmicky.

[The GrimSqueaker]

Not that you have to build a list to make it happen, many Tau lists basically come purpose built to do so as a matter of standard. I can't see anyone building a battle plan to do so either. It's more a cool thing we're able to do if we feel like it. 

[Crawfskeezen]

I told you, if you believe this idea has merit, provide evidence.  Come up with a scenario and let us see how the dice rolls look.  Don't just keep talking about ideas that you have no proof work.  The notion that spending 14 pts for a single BS2 markerlight is a "good" investment for a 33.3% chance of boosting other units is obviously flawed.

You are looking at this with a very narrow view, it seems you have dismissed the tactic in your own book and this has thus made it entirely invalid, which is not the case. This tactic has merit. It's not limited to drones, or Firewarriors, or Pathfinders. Scenarios have been given, but seeing as you ask for more I'd be more than happy to oblige.

Suppose you have a squad of FW's with a Cadre Fireblade sitting on a objective at the back of the field (if this is not a "likely" situation then I do not know what is). Maybe they have a shot with their Pulse Rifles maybe they don't, for arguments sake let's say they don't but the Fireblade is in range of an Alpha target with his Markerlight. He shoots it at BS S which is way better than regular FW or PF BS and drops a Light on the target that your other units - such as a squad of 4 pathfinders - can then take advantage of.

Now, I'm not a major mathhammerer by any means but I know statistics, and the numbers say that the Fireblade's Markerlight hits 5 times out of 6 or, has an 83% chance of turning four shots with 50% chance to hit into four shots with a 67% chance to hit.

Not that you have to build a list to make it happen, many Tau lists basically come purpose built to do so as a matter of standard. I can't see anyone building a battle plan to do so either. It's more a cool thing we're able to do if we feel like it. 

Rummy sums it up well there. In many strategies coming from the new dex Fireblades will be sitting with Firewarriors in overlapping gun lines. The Fireblade comes with a Light and a Lock, it's not like one goes out of their way to get it. It's an interesting tactic but not one that will be the centre of an army build but is available to and can be a small aspect of most.

[The GrimSqueaker]

Basically, I intend to use this tactic as a hold my beer and watch this play. Nothing I expect to win me a game but more something to show other people what the Tau codex is capable of. I feel there's always a place for being silly and this is one of those times. Heading into a game soon I've got some red thread to use to trace the different marker light shots from firing model to target unit. Let's see how the web of death looks upon the target. 

[ntr.Sleight]

I told you, if you believe this idea has merit, provide evidence.  Come up with a scenario and let us see how the dice rolls look.  Don't just keep talking about ideas that you have no proof work.  The notion that spending 14 pts for a single BS2 markerlight is a "good" investment for a 33.3% chance of boosting other units is obviously flawed.

You are looking at this with a very narrow view, it seems you have dismissed the tactic in your own book and this has thus made it entirely invalid, which is not the case. This tactic has merit. It's not limited to drones, or Firewarriors, or Pathfinders. Scenarios have been given, but seeing as you ask for more I'd be more than happy to oblige.

Suppose you have a squad of FW's with a Cadre Fireblade sitting on a objective at the back of the field (if this is not a "likely" situation then I do not know what is). Maybe they have a shot with their Pulse Rifles maybe they don't, for arguments sake let's say they don't but the Fireblade is in range of an Alpha target with his Markerlight. He shoots it at BS S which is way better than regular FW or PF BS and drops a Light on the target that your other units - such as a squad of 4 pathfinders - can then take advantage of.

Now, I'm not a major mathhammerer by any means but I know statistics, and the numbers say that the Fireblade's Markerlight hits 5 times out of 6 or, has an 83% chance of turning four shots with 50% chance to hit into four shots with a 67% chance to hit.

Not that you have to build a list to make it happen, many Tau lists basically come purpose built to do so as a matter of standard. I can't see anyone building a battle plan to do so either. It's more a cool thing we're able to do if we feel like it. 

Rummy sums it up well there. In many strategies coming from the new dex Fireblades will be sitting with Firewarriors in overlapping gun lines. The Fireblade comes with a Light and a Lock, it's not like one goes out of their way to get it. It's an interesting tactic but not one that will be the centre of an army build but is available to and can be a small aspect of most.

Dude.  I did that math.  I literally did that EXACT math on the previous page.  And showed it make no meaningfully difference in terms of shots hit.

You can't make it not true by pretending it didn't happen.

[Crawfskeezen]

You can't use that example.  I showed that doesn't work.  I showed that doesn't work.  I showed that doesn't work.

I really don't care how old you are, just try to act with the slightest bit of maturity. For the benefit of everyone.

Please go reread my post.

I've read it, a few times now trying to see why you want me to go keep re-reading it. I see you made a bunch of calculations, accurate and correct as they are, and are declaring absolution. I don't think you have the whole picture. How many times have you played with the Fireblade and Firewarriors and used this tactic - and I mean on a table - because if it's less than 3 times you've really not tested your hypothesis correctly.

I'm saying you need to back down a bit on this topic, because you're obviously very heated about it but the fact is you really don't know in truth how it will play out, just what is probable, and as such have no right disabusing me on my position which is the tactic has a possibility of being viable.

[faitherun (Fay-ith-er-run)]

Have you tried this in real life?

The last refuge of the incorrect is in personal attacks.  Please post on topic material or refrain from posting.  No need to derail a thread just because you lost an argument.

Ok, ntr.sleight.

I don't normally get into this but...

There is a difference between the statistics of what should happen and the reality of what does happen.

If you expand the sample size out to a large enough number, then the two, that is the stats and reality, should align.

However, we don't care about a large sample size, because we are playing a game. Therefore, out sample size is limited only to the amount of dice rolled in that game. Anything beyond that is meaningless.

Even with the large sample size, you still have uncertainty in your calculations. Statistics can not ever 100% predict something. Ever.

I suggest you read this.
Probability vs. Certainty - Lookout Landing

and this too
http://www.nadiahardy.com/ProbabilityVStipicality.pdf

also this...
Probability Vs Certainty - OptionPundit

I can keep going...

The point it, in short

Stats can not, and will not, ever with 100% accuracy predict life. It can be helpful in making educated guesses, but it should not be relied solely upon

[ntr.Sleight]

Have you tried this in real life?

The last refuge of the incorrect is in personal attacks.  Please post on topic material or refrain from posting.  No need to derail a thread just because you lost an argument.

Ok, ntr.sleight.

I don't normally get into this but...

There is a difference between the statistics of what should happen and the reality of what does happen.

If you expand the sample size out to a large enough number, then the two, that is the stats and reality, should align.

However, we don't care about a large sample size, because we are playing a game. Therefore, out sample size is limited only to the amount of dice rolled in that game. Anything beyond that is meaningless.

Even with the large sample size, you still have uncertainty in your calculations. Statistics can not ever 100% predict something. Ever.

I suggest you read this.
Probability vs. Certainty - Lookout Landing

and this too
http://www.nadiahardy.com/ProbabilityVStipicality.pdf

also this...
Probability Vs Certainty - OptionPundit

I can keep going...

The point it, in short

Stats can not, and will not, ever with 100% accuracy predict life. It can be helpful in making educated guesses, but it should not be relied solely upon

So... you either misunderstand those papers or misunderstand the role of mathhammer.  I dunno which.

You can make no expectations of what will happen in a single game.  You are trying to predict the behavior over the long term. Why?  Because we don't just play one game.  We don't just play one shooting phase.  And over our careers, good consistent armies will show that is the case.

[Shas'La robo]

And over our careers, good consistent armies will show that is the case.

But where is the fun in playing the exact same list over and over, for years?

robo

[faitherun (Fay-ith-er-run)]

So... you either misunderstand those papers or misunderstand the role of mathhammer.  I dunno which.

You can make no expectations of what will happen in a single game.  You are trying to predict the behavior over the long term. Why?  Because we don't just play one game.  We don't just play one shooting phase.  And over our careers, good consistent armies will show that is the case.

You mean to tell me that you read a 35 pg article in about 12 min, and understood it all...

The illusion of certainty is a ghost that many people would do well to stop chasing

That's a direct quote from one of the articles...

Moreover, the methods used in order to challenge a misconception in a convincing manner are not
practical in the context of Probability Theory due to its non-deterministic nature.

There is another one.

Over the course of a career, yes, the units should act according to what you predict. But that does not matter in a single game. If you are ok with loosing games because your math says that you should, over the long run, win, then fine.

Yet even with all the best calculations in the world, stats is not 100% accurate.


I find this to be quite relevant.
A Beautiful Mind (2/11) Movie CLIP - The Hubris of the Defeated (2001) HD

So a simple question.

Either yes or no.

Do you believe that a statistical probability can, with absolute certainty, predict what will happen?

[Mr.Peanut (Turtleproof)]

[gmod]Ladies and gentlemen: There comes a point in a thread when two sides cease to present arguments backing up the merits of their arguments. At this point, bygones must let them be bygones. If agreement cannot be met between users, users must then accept that individual users must reach agreement on their own terms, in their own gaming groups.[/gmod]

[Wiggus]

[Wiggus - I don't normally feel the need to step in at all between Oink and the globals my presence is not normally needed (much like Aun'va himself  )Both groups here obviously approach table top gaming with difference attitudes we aren't here to gather converts to our style but merely to share ideas and perspectives this had clearly already been achieved and unless any more constructive posts can come out of this topic consider it FINISHED In other words play nice or its naughty steps all round. Be happy  ]

[Fenris]

I think the idea of using cascading markerlights is a good one, although it rarely comes into play, but when it does it can make a real difference when firing at deathstar units.

You need 3+ units to take advantage of it.
Say you have 3 units of firewarriors with a shas'ui and a markerlight.
First unit fires at normal BS.
Second unit has a 50% chance of firing at a higher BS.
Third unit has a 33% chance of firing at BS+2. (thats better than 25% with no cascading)

[Shas'La robo]

You need 3+ units to take advantage of it.
Say you have 3 units of firewarriors with a shas'ui and a markerlight.
First unit fires at normal BS.
Second unit has a 50% chance of firing at a higher BS.
Third unit has a 33% chance of firing at BS+2. (thats better than 25% with no cascading)

I think the best way to make cascading work is by using 3+ units with 2-4 markerlights + other weapons in them shooting at the same target.

Example; (Assume all squads sitting around 20-24" away from target)
12 man fire warrior squad, shas'ui, markerlight + target lock, 2 marker drones, with an attached fireblade
12 man fire warrior squad, shas'ui, markerlight + target lock, 2 marker drones
8 man Pathfinder squad, 3 ion/rail rifles
and a squad of 2-3 crises suits w/ plasma/fusion.

Fireblade's squad should get at least 2 markerlight hits + cause some damage on target.
Next squad of fire warriors fires at +2 BS, getting hopefully another 2 markerlight hits + some more damage.
Pathfinders shoot next at +2 BS, land 4 markerlight hits and some more damage.
Finally the crises suits shoot at +2 BS and Ignores cover wiping out the remains of the unit. 

There you have it, the majority of a large dangerous enemy squad hopefully pulverised in a turn of shooting from less than half of a 1750pt army.

This tactic could be used indefinitely if enough squads have 2-4 markerlights.
Also note that if enough squads roll well, ie. almost every markerlight hits (not gonna happen with my luck  ) then more units can shoot with increased BS if necessary, or a better option more markerlights can be used to ignore cover to units that fire before the crises suits.

robo