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Author Topic: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why  (Read 5849 times)

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Offline SeekingOne

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2017, 04:21:10 AM »
@Fenris
Let's check durability against bolters and lascannons.

Against bolters:
Lords = 3*1.5*1.5*20 = 135 shots
Walkers = 2*1.5*1.5*18 = 81 shots
That's 67% more durable.

Against lascannons:
Lords = 1.25*1.5*1.5*20= 56.25 shots
Walkers = 1.5*1.5*1.5*18= 60.75 shots
That makes the Walkers 8% more durable.

Could you please explain the formulas and what exactly you mean by "durability" in this context?
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Offline Blazinghand

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2017, 04:47:26 AM »
By my calculations, it would take on average
3*3*10 = 90 bolter hits to down a wraithlord and
3*2*6 = 36 bolter hits to down a  war Walker.

(3/2) * (6/5) * (10/3.5) = just over 5 lascannon hits to down a WL
(3/2) * (3/2) * (6/3.5) = just under 4 lascannon hits to down a war walker
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Offline Fenris

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2017, 07:05:02 AM »
Oh, sorry I can try to explain it.
Lords = 3*1.5*1.5*20 = 135 shots
3 is the number of wounds needed to pass the armour once(1/3).
1.5 3 is the number of hits needed to wound once.
1.5 is the number of shots needed to hit once.
20 is the number of wounds of 2 wraithlords.

However I now see I made an error, it should be 3*3*1.5*20 = 270 shots.
and walkers should be 2*3*1.5*18 = 162 shots.
Which is still 67% more durable wraithlord.

I was probably a bit tired yesterday and totally forgot the damage roll on the lascannons:
Quote
Against lascannons:
Lords = 1.25*1.5*1.5*20= 56.25 54 shots
Walkers = 1.5*1.5*1.5*18= 60.75 shots
That makes the Walkers 8% more durable.
Both should have been divided by 3.5 and 6/5 is 1.2 not 1.25 my bad.
Lords = 15,43 shots
Walkers = 17,36 shots
which is actually 12.5% rather than 8%.

Blazinghand's numbers are correct, the difference is that I'm counting shots instead of hits (and of course some of my errors) :-[

So if every 2nd shot is a lascannon
the Lords are (66,67 +12.5)/2 -12.5 = 27,5% more durable
every 5th = (66.67) -(66,67 + 12,5/5) = 51% more durable
every 10th = (66.67) -(66,67 + 12,5/10) = 59%

So they are actually more even, which might just swing the favor over to the Walkers due to them shrugging of overkill wounds easier.
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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #23 on: July 21, 2017, 08:29:16 AM »
I've been massively impressed by Hornets with Bright Lances. After using them with Pulse Lasers since 6th ed. the change was hugely disappointing. Yet after giving the Bright Lances a whirl, I found mine tearing apart vehicles and even an Imperial Knight.

The damage output is mighty impressive, especially when you are taking them in numbers. I've got 5 Hornets... I'm running 3 in my next game with Lances.

The fact that they dont have degrading stats is also really nice.

But I am tempted to try running a couple with Shuriken Cannons too. Vectored Engines + Hornets built in "hard to hit" will have them at -2 and I think you can advance and shoot those little suckers... so I may give it a go. 
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Offline SeekingOne

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #24 on: July 21, 2017, 12:39:27 PM »
However I now see I made an error, it should be 3*3*1.5*20 = 270 shots.
and walkers should be 2*3*1.5*18 = 162 shots.
Which is still 67% more durable wraithlord.

Thanks! It's clear now. I knew there should've been a reason why figures in your formula seemed unrecognisable :)

So they are actually more even, which might just swing the favor over to the Walkers due to them shrugging of overkill wounds easier.

By the way, I'd say that taking into account just small arms (bolters) and heavy AT (lascannons) doesn't give the full picture: there's one more specific category of weapons that is significantly different from both bolters and lascannons and has to be taken into account separately. I'm talking about high-RoF medium-weight heavy weapons like heavy bolters/assault cannons/autocannons, which are also quite frequently encountered in many armies. I think a generic profile of S6 Ap-1 D1 would be a good approximation of that category. In our case, Wraithlord's advantage in resilience is in fact the highest against the weapons of that kind.

I do my calculations differently when comparing units - using Lanchester square formulas - but my results are similar. They are slightly more in favour of Wraithlords because I took into account assault cannon/autocannons as well, but fairly close. So I'd also say that the overall comparison shows that units are roughly equal - what Wraithlords lose in terms of firepower they gain in resilience.

How exactly this will play out in game terms is practically impossible to predict or analyse. It all goes down to how much firepower exactly (and what kind of firepower) the enemy would throw at both units. E.g. firepower that would be enough to kill 1 Walker most likely will not be enough to even cripple a single WL - which will be in favour of WLs, but at the same time firepower that would be enough to kill 1 WL most likely will not be enough to kill 2 Walkers, which will be in favour of Walkers, etc. Imho, specific nuances like the Walkers' potential capability to better shrug off excess wounds would be too situational to be significant here. It's still roughly equal.

That said, I have somewhat unexpected news: while Walkers and WLs are roughly equal, Wave Serpents seem better than both. For just ~15 extra points we can get 2 dual-lance Serpents which will be even more resilient against small and medium weapons, and, due to the combination of serpent shield and having more wounds, are almost as resistant to lascannons as Walkers (and much more so than Wraithlords).

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Offline Blazinghand

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #25 on: July 21, 2017, 02:07:24 PM »
For about 300 points you could get 3 War Walkers (~300), 2 Wraithlords (~285), 2.5 Hornets (~310), or 2 Wave Serpents (~320) with 2 Bright Lance.

War Walkers have the most firepower, then Hornets, then Wraithlords and Wave Serpents (which are slightly more expensive than Wraithlords but we'll treat as about the same for this)

Calculated below: The average number of hits from a weapon needed to take down these units entirely (higher is more durable). Note, we're counting single-shot hits here. So a weapon that gets a lot of shots, probably is more effective than these numbers show.

Bolter
3 War Walkers: 3 * 2 * 18 = 108
2.5 Hornets: 3 * 3 * 20 = 180
2 Wraithlords: 3 * 3 * 20 = 180
2 Wave Serps: 3 * 3 * 26 = 234

Heavy Bolter
3 War Walkers: 3 * 3/2 * 18 = 81
2.5 Hornets: 3 * 2 * 20 = 120
2 Wraithlords: 3 * 2 * 20 = 120
2 Wave Serps: 3 * 2 * 26 = 156

Assault Cannon
3 War Walkers: 2 * 3/2 * 18 = 54
2.5 Hornets: 2 * 2 * 20 = 80
2 Wraithlords: 3 * 2 * 20 = 120
2 Wave Serps: 3 * 2 * 26 = 156

Overcharged Plasma Gun
3 War Walkers: 3/2 * 3/2 * 18/2 = 20.25
2.5 Hornets: 3/2 * 6/5 * 20/2 = 18
2 Wraithlords: 2 * 6/5 * 20/2 = 24
2 Wave Serps: 3/2 * 6/5 * 26 = 47

Lascannon
3 War Walkers: 3/2 * 3/2 * 18/3.5 = 11.5
2.5 Hornets: 3/2 * 6/5 * 20/3.5 = 10.3
2 Wraithlords: 3/2 * 6/5 * 20/3.5 = 10.3
2 Wave Serps: 3/2 * 6/5 * 26/2.7 = 17.3

Meltagun (Half Range)
3 War Walkers: 3/2 * 3/2 * 18/4.5 = 9
2.5 Hornets: 3/2 * 1 * 20/4.5 = 6.7
2 Wraithlords: 3/2 * 1 * 20/4.5 = 6.7
2 Wave Serps: 3/2 * 1 * 26/3.5 = 11.1

Note: 2d6, pick the highest, then subtract 1 from the result, minimum 1, has an average of 3.5


So, what does this tell us?

Well, we see that against small arms, the good armor saves and extra wounds of Hornets, Wraithlords, and Wave Serpents are good, taking sometimes 2x the amount of punishment. Against specialized anti-infantry weapons, everyone does worse, and against the Assault Cannon, the War Walkers in particular seem underwhelming. Against specialized anti-tank weapons, the War Walkers are actually slightly (against plasguns, lascannons, etc) or significantly (against Meltaguns) more durable than Hornets or Wraithlords, due to the Power Field. However, the clear winner for durability in all scenarios are the Wave Serpents, which run a bunch of wounds, have the Serpent Shield, and have a solid base armor save.

So, War Walkers: surprisingly durable, but also surprisingly vulnerable to anti-infantry guns. Wave Serpents: highly durable, but less firepower than the other options.

In terms of "platforms for Bright Lances" it seems like Hornets could be a good choice. Compared to War Walkers, they have somewhat less firepower, are somewhat better against anything that's not dedicated anti-tank, and somewhat worse against anything that IS dedicated anti-tank. They pack more of a punch than Wraithlords or Wave Serpents do for the same price. More mobile than War Walkers which is the killer here.

War Walkers seem like the winner for raw damage output of course, and hold up surprisingly well to Lascannons, Plasmaguns, and Meltaguns compared to Hornets and Wraithlords, point for point. That vulnerability to small arms fire might be a problem though, and they can't move and shoot using CTM like Hornets can.

Wave Serpents and Wraithlords both have less damage output, but bring other things to the table. Wave Serpents have the lowest damage output (since they cost 5% more than the War Walkers with only 4 Bright Lances instead of 6), but they are, well, Wave Serpents. You're paying for that huge durability and the transport stuff. They're not really fire support-only tanks. Worth it if you need to transport things, in my view. Wraithlords can't transport anything, but have extra guns for up-close combat and are good in assault. Excellent in the right army. Always on the move, in all likelihood, so even more problems with that damage output.

I think all four of these platforms have their place. War walkers with the most damage output, Hornets with the maneuverability, and Wave Serpents and Wraithlords with somewhat less output per points, (and the Wraithlords more durable vs small arms, less via antitank) but bringing other things to the table.

Also, it should be noted that Wraithlords aren't taken in squads so your opponent may assign too many lascannons to it and waste fire.
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Offline Arufel87

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #26 on: July 21, 2017, 02:19:42 PM »
Wow, I must say this has been an excellent discussion and it's great to see that there isn't necessarily an easy choice to make. Bravo to all the mathhammerers who have much more patience with these things than I do!

If I could ask one thing of the chat then it would be which unit has the best multi-wound damage to point ratio? Obviously we're talking pure offense now and I suspect it may be one of the flyers that wins the contest.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 04:15:14 PM by Arufel87 »

Offline Fenris

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #27 on: July 22, 2017, 08:26:29 PM »
which unit has the best multi-wound damage to point ratio?
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Offline SeekingOne

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2017, 08:51:17 PM »
2. Crimson Hunters

Considering plain averages, if you factor in Smite then Hemlock will be equal to CH. This makes Hemlock strictly better in most situations because it doesn't degrade with damage.
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Offline Fenris

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #29 on: July 23, 2017, 07:52:37 AM »
@SeekingOne:
For the same point cost:
- The Hemlock does 8 +D3 damage = 8 + 1.67 = 9,67
- 6x Dark reapers (exarch with AML) does 15/20(depending on firing mode) +D6 damage = 10 + 2.35 = 12.35
- Crimson hunter (which is cheaper) 6 +2D6 = 5 + 5,56 = 10.56

Even if we take "to hit" chances into account the Dark Reapers are superior.
The Crimson hunter is still superior to the Hemlock.
Dark Reapers are superior to the Crimson Hunter, even if we drop 1 Reaper.


Degrading with damage is a durability issue IMO.
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Offline SeekingOne

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #30 on: July 23, 2017, 08:13:35 AM »
@SeekingOne:
For the same point cost:
- The Hemlock does 8 +D3 damage = 8 + 1.67 = 9,67
- 6x Dark reapers (exarch with AML) does 15/20(depending on firing mode) +D6 damage = 10 + 2.35 = 12.35
- Crimson hunter (which is cheaper) 6 +2D6 = 5 + 5,56 = 10.56

Again, I'm not getting how you calculate this.
Where does damage 8 for Hemlock come from?! Is that average of 2D3 multiplied by 2 damage per wound? What about roll to wound then?! What is 1.67?
6 + 2D6 for CH - is that just 2x3 damage from Pulse + 2d6 damage from lances, disregarding rolls to hit and to wound?! Then how does 6 + 2d6 transform into 5 + 5.56?!
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Offline Fenris

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2017, 08:57:41 AM »
Hemlock 2D3 *2 = 8 dmg
D3 dmg = 2.5 * 2/3 = 1.67 (taking the roll of 1 out since that is not multiwound dmg)
I actually forgot to add the chance to successfully cast smite which is 5/6 so 8+ 1.39 = 9,39 should be more accurate.

I have not taken to wound rolls nor passing armour saves into account because the target was undefined.

6 + 2D6 is the pulse laser and the two lances, the pulselaser will hit 5/6 *6 = 5 and the lances will have an average dmg of 8*5/6 and hit on 5/6 so 8*5/6 *5/6 = 5.56 dmg.

Dark Reaper exarch re-rolls 1's to hit so it's 4*5/6 average dmg hitting on 4/6 with re-roll 1/6*4/6 makes it 4*5/6 * (4/6 +1/6*4/6) = 2,59 seems like I did a small error there too, but the same conclusion still stands.
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Offline SeekingOne

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #32 on: July 23, 2017, 10:26:37 AM »
Hemlock 2D3 *2 = 8 dmg
So you're factoring in hit rolls but not wound rolls - ok...

Quote
D3 dmg = 2.5 * 2/3 = 1.67 (taking the roll of 1 out since that is not multiwound dmg)
I actually forgot to add the chance to successfully cast smite which is 5/6 so 8+ 1.39 = 9,39 should be more accurate.
D3 damage by itself has the dead average of 2, not 1.67. However, if you factor in 5/6 to cast then it becomes 2*5/6 = 1.67

Quote
6 + 2D6 is the pulse laser and the two lances, the pulselaser will hit 5/6 *6 = 5 and the lances will have an average dmg of 8*5/6 and hit on 5/6 so 8*5/6 *5/6 = 5.56 dmg.

Crimson Hunter hits on 3+ not 2+. It has basic BS of 2+ but always suffers -1 hit penalty for moving and firing heavy weapons.
So Pulse laser, disregarding wound rolls, averages at 6*2/3*5/6 (5/6 is what's left of 3+ save), and lances average at 7*2/3, which totals at 8 vs Hemlock's total of 9.67.

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Offline Fenris

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #33 on: July 23, 2017, 08:05:43 PM »

Quote
D3 dmg = 2.5 * 2/3 = 1.67 (taking the roll of 1 out since that is not multiwound dmg)
I actually forgot to add the chance to successfully cast smite which is 5/6 so 8+ 1.39 = 9,39 should be more accurate.
D3 damage by itself has the dead average of 2, not 1.67. However, if you factor in 5/6 to cast then it becomes 2*5/6 = 1.67
Didn't I just explain that a damage roll of '1' is not a multiwound damage. A multiwound damage is 2+, hence if a weapon does D3 damage on a roll of '1' it does not do any multiwound damage. In 2/3 cases you will however roll '2' or '3' on a D3, however since the '1' roll is disregarded the average damage of those 2/3 times when you roll a '2' or a '3' the average of 2 & 3 becomes 2.5.
That's why I used 2.5 *2/3, if we then add the hit chance of 30/36  we get 2.5*2/3*30/36 which is the same as 2.5*2/3*30/36

Initially I didn't even bother to calculate the to hit chance because that's dependant on the target usually. Now moving minuses is yet another variable and another reason I didn't bother with it in the first place, next you will be suggesting skyhunters rule affects it too?
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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2017, 06:01:13 AM »

Didn't I just explain that a damage roll of '1' is not a multiwound damage.

Oh, so that's what you mean. I have to say, this is one of the most... unconventional twists of logic I've encountered in quite a while  :D

Quote
Now moving minuses is yet another variable and another reason I didn't bother with it in the first place, next you will be suggesting skyhunters rule affects it too?
Well, I'm sorry if my questions annoy you - but if you present some numbers, the meaning of those numbers or the way how these numbers were obtained has to be clearly known. Otherwise they are meaningless and even misleading.

E.g. if a person asks you how far is it to point X - you can't just tell him "It's about 5", right? You have to specify whether it's 5 miles, or 5 kilometres, or perhaps 5 hours of walk, all of which would mean different things.
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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #35 on: July 29, 2017, 06:46:42 PM »
Is there any advantage to traditional War Walker loadouts with multiple weapons, either on individual models or within units? War Walkers appear to be the big beneficiary of the fact that we now have free targeting for both individual weapon systems and different models within the unit.

Alternatively they seem the one unit that may benefit from taking EMLs over bright lances because the weapon's relative inefficiency is compensated for somewhat by sheer quanity - a 6 EML Walker squadron is roughly as good against most vehicles, where 6 BLs may be excessive anyway so an extra save or two may not be critical, and 6D6 shots against infantry amounts to an average somewhere in the region of 20-21 shots. By Eldar standards this is a cheap way to get that weight of fire.

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2017, 06:56:36 PM »
Problem is, point cost of 3 walkers with 6 AEML is comparable to that of 10 Dark Reapers. And 10 Reapers fire 10 heavy missiles to WW's 6, and, effectively, the same 20 small caliber shots with better S and AP, making them overall more attractive option.
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Offline Rhyleth

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #37 on: July 29, 2017, 07:19:42 PM »
Problem is, point cost of 3 walkers with 6 AEML is comparable to that of 10 Dark Reapers. And 10 Reapers fire 10 heavy missiles to WW's 6, and, effectively, the same 20 small caliber shots with better S and AP, making them overall more attractive option.

Surely that would also count against the bright lance option, if we aren't taking WWs' durability into account? Bright lances are more expensive than EMLs and the weight of fire from a 10-Reaper squad should deal more damage, enough to compensate for the lower save modifier. Against a T8 target with a 3+ save, for instance, the 6 WW bright lances get an average of 2 (1.98) wounding hits and Reapers get an average of 2.2. Reapers deal 3 flat wounds per hit, which equals the average of the Walkers'. All of which assumes the Walkers don't move, and that invulnerable saves aren't involved (as in most cases where a unit has a 5+ or better invulnerable save, the EML performs identically to the bright lance).

On that basis WWs as anti-tank platforms simply shouldn't be viable at all - I think this discussion is only productive if we ignore Dark Reapers as a point of comparison, or at least assume that their other traits (principally, their higher durability and their related ability to take damage while still fighting at full effect) are valuable enough that WWs compare favourably with Reapers.

Against that same target profile, EMLs deal only a third less damage than brightlances (as the target gets a 5+ save instead of no save) - down from 1.98 to 1.3 wounding hits. That's a real difference, but is it enough to favour the bright lance over the EML given the latter's lower cost and greater anti-infantry capability, as well as the fact that it's closely comparable as an AT weapon against large targets with 4+ or worse armour (not that there are many that qualify) or those with an invulnerable save (of which there are many)?
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 07:22:02 PM by Rhyleth »

Offline Blazinghand

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #38 on: July 29, 2017, 07:22:24 PM »
Hmm, 6 BLs might be overkill but due to the rules on splitting fire I think it's fine to have 6 Bright Lances on 3 War Walkers as a unit. If wasting fire concerns you, you can have some of them shoot elsewhere.

BLs are cheaper than Eldar Missile Launchers, as a note.

Although Dark Reapers may put out more missiles per cost than War Walkers, it's possible that the War Walkers are more durable in some ways that are preferred. Dark Reapers could be pretty good though it seems their lower toughness could be a problem.
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Offline Rhyleth

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Re: Optimal heavy weapon choices for units and reasons why
« Reply #39 on: July 29, 2017, 07:27:02 PM »
On the more general subject of heavy weapons, what are people's opinions on the support platforms? Are any of these viable? The vibro-cannon appears to be wholly without merit, as they've never fixed the issue that every v-cannon costs the same even though the first two are basically markerlights.

The D-cannon has its usual range issue and just seems likely to be less efficient than using Wraithguard for the same purpose, as well as less versatile.

The Shadow Weaver may be interesting, though - is it efficient enough to be viable, is the Night Spinner just better, and is the Night Spinner itself viable?

Post Merge: July 29, 2017, 07:40:16 PM
In the future, please use the modify button. Double posting is against the forum rules, and for that reason, the system merged your posts.

Hmm, 6 BLs might be overkill but due to the rules on splitting fire I think it's fine to have 6 Bright Lances on 3 War Walkers as a unit. If wasting fire concerns you, you can have some of them shoot elsewhere.

BLs are cheaper than Eldar Missile Launchers, as a note.

Although Dark Reapers may put out more missiles per cost than War Walkers, it's possible that the War Walkers are more durable in some ways that are preferred. Dark Reapers could be pretty good though it seems their lower toughness could be a problem.

After running the numbers above, overkill seems unlikely to be an issue (though the hypothetical target was slightly tougher than I've seen on average).

I must still have my mind back in 3rd Ed. - the reason my army is kitted out with EMLs is that the weapon was more efficient back in those days, as bright lances cost too much for what they did. Even so, running those figures makes me think the EML is at least competitive with the bright lance when you have the luxury of a platform that can use AT weapons in quantity.

The numbers also have me thinking I may want to invest in bulking up my Dark Reaper squad to 10 models...
« Last Edit: July 29, 2017, 07:40:16 PM by Rhyleth »

 


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