You are correct. The Ion Cannon averages at least one damaging hit ~83% of the time against AV10 whereas the Railgun gets one ~67% of the time. It is worth noting, of course, that the Railgun *always* penetrates such vehicles and is AP1, giving it slightly greater odds to destroy said vehicles (~30% for the Ion Cannon Vs ~33% for the Railgun). The odds to destroy widen the higher the AV goes, but the Ion Cannon has pretty good odds to damage most light vehicles, often in excess of the Railgun's potential.
The Ion Cannon is, of course, better than the Railgun at damaging MCs, whereas the Railgun is far superior to the Ion Cannon when killing Infantry.