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Offline ValkorisZ

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Percenteges of Death
« on: August 2, 2002, 04:09:34 PM »
Here are the statistics for different Tau Weapons killing a Space Marine, ENJOY :)
Well,, the chances of it killing a marine,, in any case, ENJOY:) (BS is considered 3)

Pulse Rifle = 1/9                2/9 (When on Rapid Fire)
Pulse Carbine = 1/9           2/9 (If Twin Linked)
Burst Cannon= 1/3            2/3 (If Twink Linked)
Smart Miss. = 4/9              8/9 (If Twin Linked)
Fusion Blaster = 5/12         5/6 (If Twin Linked)
Ion Cannon = 5/4            
Kroot Gun = 5/36            5/18 (When on Rapid Fire)
Kroot Rifle = 1/12             1/6 (When on Rapid Fire)
Missile Pod = 5/18            5/9 (If Twin Linked)
Plasma Rifle = 5/12           5/6 (When on Rapid Fire)
Rail Gun = 5/12                 5/6 (If Twin Linked)
SubMunitions = 5/36 (per unit) So you need to get 7.2 marines under it to have a 100% chance of scoring a kill.
Flamer = 1/12 (per unit) So you need to get 12 of them under it to have a 100% of scoring a kill.
Seeker Missile = 25/36

Koo, hope you understand What that all means, and here are the statistics for some of the more popular combos for Crisis Suits (BS 3) I you want other ones, I am pretty sure you can do the math.

Plasma Rifle/Missile Pods - More then 12" away = 25/36 (about 69%)
                                       - Less then 12" away = 25/18 (about 139 %)

Plasma Rifle/Fusion Blaster - More then 12" away =  5/12 (about 42%)
                                         - Less then 12" away = 10/9 (about 111%)

Plasma Rifle/Burst Cannon - More then 12" away = 3/4 (about 75%)
                                        - Less then 12" away = 7/6 (about 117%)

And since I know some of you were wondering, I will answer the age old question of what is the best configuration to put on the Broad Side. Though it Still all depends on how much LOS you have, and keep in mind that if you don't run when an enemy is within 12" of you, you are screwed up the ass.

Twin-Rails/Twin-Plasma Guns - More then 12" away = 5/3 ( about 167%)
                                                Less then 12" away = 5/2 (about 250%)

Twin-Rails/Twin-Smart Missiles - The same at both ranges = 23/18 (128%)


Since this is Eldar Online, and some of you think there is a chance in hell that you will pin an nme squad of Marines , its 25%. If you kill of half of them, it will be 33.3%. And thats if you inflint a kill (you would probably kill 3 marines in two turns of firing with the Pulse Carbine)

The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline ValkorisZ

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #1 on: August 2, 2002, 04:17:37 PM »
what am I saying 25%, the marines get to reroll failed tests,, its 12.5%,,, sorry
The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline Tobab816

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #2 on: August 2, 2002, 05:24:26 PM »
Ofcourse you have made a few errors.

at BS3 the twin-link increases the killchance by x1.5. NOT x2. There is a 50% hitchance without twin-link and a 75% hit chance With twinlink.

AND as for the Plasmarifle/Fusionblaster the chances of a kill within 12" is 5/4 or 120%.

AND the chance of a Plasmarifle/Missilepod combo is within 12" a 20/18 chance or a 111% chance and outside 12" it's 25/36 or more specificly 69% chance.
Deathball, the new game of bloody basketball, 40k style!

+++Excerpt from Last Chaos/Space marine game, commentator: Inquisitor Khalheed "The Purgator" Qhor, Ex-Deathball player+++

Chaos vs Space Marine grudgematch today ended 23-19 when Brother Grazieel decimated the chaos team with a heavy bolter.

Afterwards the Chaos Coach Zhuriel the Damned stated "If we weren't ideologically in favor of cheating we'd complain about this""
+++End of transmission+++

Offline Mystic511

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #3 on: August 2, 2002, 07:13:53 PM »
the smart missile system isn't twin linked..

and I don't understand what your stats mean at all..  Did you just roll some die like 50 times and see how many times it would hit?  And what does your percentages mean especially the ones that are over 100%?  Mathematically it doesn't make sense, so could you explain a little more?

Offline Tobab816

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #4 on: August 2, 2002, 08:31:09 PM »
Mystic511: No...you calculate.

Lets say the regular Pulserifle on a firewarrior who fires against a spacemarine.

he has 50% chance of hitting the spacemarine, he has 2/3 chance of wounding him and finally 1/3 chance of bypassing his armorsave.

In simpler terms. I always start to calculate from a number of 36 shots. It's a nice number that can easily be divided by 2, 3 and 6. The numbers most commonly used in Warhammer40k.

So if we have 36 warriors with pulserifles then ON AVERAGE 18(50%) of them will hit. Of those 12(2/3) will wound them and finally 4(1/3) will bypass the save. That means that ON AVERAGE 4 out of 36 warriors will wound. Simplify that and you have 1/9. One out of 9 firewarriors with pulserifles will hit, wound AND kill a spacemarine...on average. In some round more, in some rounds less.

As for the percentile scores...that is the percentile chance of wounding a spacemarine.
In the cases of MORE than 100% then he will probally kill 1 spacemarine and will some times inflict a second wound as well. For example 120%. That means that on average that Battlesuit will cause 1.2 wounds per round. Or on average 6 wounds on 5 rounds.
Deathball, the new game of bloody basketball, 40k style!

+++Excerpt from Last Chaos/Space marine game, commentator: Inquisitor Khalheed "The Purgator" Qhor, Ex-Deathball player+++

Chaos vs Space Marine grudgematch today ended 23-19 when Brother Grazieel decimated the chaos team with a heavy bolter.

Afterwards the Chaos Coach Zhuriel the Damned stated "If we weren't ideologically in favor of cheating we'd complain about this""
+++End of transmission+++

Offline ValkorisZ

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #5 on: August 2, 2002, 10:19:49 PM »
I am trying to give a basic idea. Not much more. And if you have BS3, and you reroll, that on average means a hit, since a BS3 means yo uhit 50% of the time, and since you reroll, that puts it to 100%, or multiplies by two. I ain't that good at math, but I know (at the very least) my probabilities. As for the Fusion Blaster/Plasma rifle thing, un further calculation, it appears to be 125%. As for the Missile Pod/Plasma, oops :-[.
« Last Edit: August 2, 2002, 10:30:29 PM by ValkorisZ »
The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline Tobab816

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #6 on: August 3, 2002, 05:15:02 AM »
Hehe, yes 125%....sorry bout that. 3% seemed a bit too small difference between the burst cannon and the Fusiongun.

And to explain the twin link.

Say you fire 4 shots. 2 misses. You can reroll those two and of those two 1 misses again.

So there you have it. 3 out of 4 shots hit and that is 75%
Deathball, the new game of bloody basketball, 40k style!

+++Excerpt from Last Chaos/Space marine game, commentator: Inquisitor Khalheed "The Purgator" Qhor, Ex-Deathball player+++

Chaos vs Space Marine grudgematch today ended 23-19 when Brother Grazieel decimated the chaos team with a heavy bolter.

Afterwards the Chaos Coach Zhuriel the Damned stated "If we weren't ideologically in favor of cheating we'd complain about this""
+++End of transmission+++

Offline Aerundel

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #7 on: August 3, 2002, 12:57:38 AM »
The problem was you added the percentages when you were supposed to multiply. When firing a weapon with BS 3 you have a 50% chance to miss. And of that 50%, you have another 50% chance to miss the next shot with your twinlinked weapon.

50% of 50% is 25%, therefore you have a 75% chance to hit, or 1.5X the probability of getting a hit with only 1 shot. The same thing can be said when trying to get 2 heads or tails when flipping a coin twice.

In conclusion, you don't know your rules of probability  :P And yes, 5/4 IS 125%. I hope you didn't do too much "further calculation" to figure that out. Hehe
« Last Edit: August 3, 2002, 01:36:53 AM by Aerundel »

Offline ValkorisZ

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #8 on: August 3, 2002, 12:51:25 PM »
If you had the crap ass teachers in Math i had,, yo wouldn't know much either, (refering to the guy with the shepard picture)
The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline Aerundel

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #9 on: August 3, 2002, 02:41:30 PM »
Shepherd!? My name is Oobedoob Scooby Dooby Benubi, the silliest name in the galaxy. Now, touch your tongue to mine. Why? Because that's how things are done... :P (If you didn't get any of that, go watch Thumb Wars).

Offline Mystic511

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #10 on: August 4, 2002, 12:11:04 AM »
well, regardless of your crappy math teacher valk, you still deserve a thanks for giving us an idea of what's good and bad.  But everyone has to remember that in the end, luck has the final say in a battle (rolling all sixes or ones, i know more then a few of you have done that at a critical moment.   :) ).

Offline SparqMan

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #11 on: August 4, 2002, 02:17:40 AM »
Let's see here...8 Berzerkers charging...that's 32 attacks..BS 4 vs. BS 2...hm...how many dead Tau? =D hehe. Why don't you do THOSE percentages? MWAHAHAHA! BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!

Offline Aerundel

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #12 on: August 4, 2002, 05:02:25 AM »
It's *WS* 4 v. 2. But anyway, to do that, you have to get to us first  ;) DE wyches and warp beasts would have better luck against Fire Warriors despite their lower Toughness (FoF, 12" assault for the beasts, and wych weapons  :o ).

Offline Mystic511

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #13 on: August 4, 2002, 03:04:52 PM »
and don't forget about mandrakes.  ah, gotta love sucky troops that can't be targeted until you want them to be.  ;D

Offline Tobab816

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #14 on: August 4, 2002, 04:13:12 PM »
Mandrakes can only get 18" before they must reveal themselves. The advantage of Mandrakes is not that they cannot be shot at before you reveal them, it is that you can place them in any one of 3 locations which gives you the ability to reinforce an attack.
Deathball, the new game of bloody basketball, 40k style!

+++Excerpt from Last Chaos/Space marine game, commentator: Inquisitor Khalheed "The Purgator" Qhor, Ex-Deathball player+++

Chaos vs Space Marine grudgematch today ended 23-19 when Brother Grazieel decimated the chaos team with a heavy bolter.

Afterwards the Chaos Coach Zhuriel the Damned stated "If we weren't ideologically in favor of cheating we'd complain about this""
+++End of transmission+++

Offline ValkorisZ

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #15 on: August 5, 2002, 12:53:00 AM »
Glad some1 thought this was helpful.
The spell of arms and voices: the white arms of roads, their promise of close embraces
and the black arms of tall ships that stand against the moon, their tale of distant nations.
They are held out to say: We are alone."--James Joyce

Offline Mystic511

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #16 on: August 5, 2002, 06:58:53 PM »

Mandrakes can only get 18" before they must reveal themselves. The advantage of Mandrakes is not that they cannot be shot at before you reveal them, it is that you can place them in any one of 3 locations which gives you the ability to reinforce an attack.


Yes, you're right, but aerundel's comment was that he believed troops had to GET to him first.  His comment involved wyches, which on a raider can pretty much assault 26" (even more if they get the right drugs), and warp beasts, which aren't as fast as wyches, but if lucky, it's 24" in a turn.  So my comment is that mandrakes should be included, because they can get anywhere.

We both seem to agree on this, so I don't see what's the problem?  And not only can they get anywhere because of their special 3 model rule, but they can pretty much assault 40+ inches by the second turn.  If you haven't been following the dark eldar forum, i'll explain:

In most scenarios, deployment zones are 18" from the board edge.  Since the mandrakes are hidden, they can safely deploy at the front of the zone without fear of getting shot.  Now, first turn, you can move 6" in the cover of Hidden Deployment, at the beginning of second turn, you can reveal 4" in front of the token model at the beginning of your turn, take a 6" move, fleet of foot for up to 6" and then assault 6".  That's 18+6+4+6+6+6 = 46 inches.

So that's why i said mandrakes.

Offline Tobab816

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #17 on: August 6, 2002, 06:41:27 AM »
Mystic511: Wyches can make a 32" attackmove if they have the right drugs and some luck.

12" with the raider, Jump out(another 2"), Fleet of Foot 1-6", 12" assult.

That leaves us with a distance of 27"-32" inches.
Deathball, the new game of bloody basketball, 40k style!

+++Excerpt from Last Chaos/Space marine game, commentator: Inquisitor Khalheed "The Purgator" Qhor, Ex-Deathball player+++

Chaos vs Space Marine grudgematch today ended 23-19 when Brother Grazieel decimated the chaos team with a heavy bolter.

Afterwards the Chaos Coach Zhuriel the Damned stated "If we weren't ideologically in favor of cheating we'd complain about this""
+++End of transmission+++

Offline Aerundel

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #18 on: August 6, 2002, 08:46:01 AM »

His comment involved wyches, which on a raider can pretty much assault 26" (even more if they get the right drugs)



Mystic511: Wyches can make a 32" attackmove if they have the right drugs and some luck.


Don't you love redundancy? Heh *duck*

Offline Tobab816

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Re:Percenteges of Death
« Reply #19 on: August 6, 2002, 08:49:36 AM »
Kinda missed that "even more" part.
Deathball, the new game of bloody basketball, 40k style!

+++Excerpt from Last Chaos/Space marine game, commentator: Inquisitor Khalheed "The Purgator" Qhor, Ex-Deathball player+++

Chaos vs Space Marine grudgematch today ended 23-19 when Brother Grazieel decimated the chaos team with a heavy bolter.

Afterwards the Chaos Coach Zhuriel the Damned stated "If we weren't ideologically in favor of cheating we'd complain about this""
+++End of transmission+++

 


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