Sounds like you are an hour ahead of me. I shoot for and just got them all in bad at a little after 8:00 my time.
So 40k then.
Wow, sounds like a seriously good game. I am not surprised at the speed and punch of the Orks though, as I have found that Eldar need to kill them before they charge... almost in every instance
I think the guard can handle the charge though they will be cripled by it. If it sets your army up for a more advantageous position, it can be worth it. I think in this game, things were set up for me to win if I had done things right on the 4th turn. One ork squad had advanced beyond the rest and could have been used to catapult most of my force away from the core of his force. I could have taken on one squad at a time, the the two squads I was set to work on had been taking fire the first three rounds so were already getting smaller.
In the following diagrams the orks are green (even though my opponents orks are purple) and the Eldar are yellow. W=walker. L=wraithlord. WG=wraithguard. SS=shining spears. V=vyper. The boxes represent unit footprints and don't have anything to do with the actual size of squads. The rightmost ork squad was a bunch of shoota boys. The diagram isn't to scale so distances may be a bit off, it is close enough to convey the idea though. I left out units which weren't too important to the immediate picture. There was a wraithlord to the right with 2 bikes further right but neither are pictured.
After the ork charges on turn 3 the board looked something like this.
I then moved my harlies and spear in to attack the orks in the center. The orks run and the spears are stranded. The harlies are out of immediate assault danger, but risk ranged attacks. The walker headed left to tie up the flyers and eventually blew up killing many orks in multiple squads. So the board looked something like this.
I think that my charge move should have been something like:
The harlies would have killed most of the orks, I would have won the combat, the orks would have run. Even if the orks didn't run, the harlies could have hit and run out toward the right and gotten in position to charge either of the ork squads. The lord and bikes on the right could have been used to keep the harlies from getting shot by the shootas if necessary.
Meanwhile the spears and guard likely would have finished the orks they were working on and been able to consolidate right and forward.
In the ork turn the guard squad in the center would be fininshed off if that cc was still going leaving the boss and few remaining orks exposed to shooting which had a good chance of finishing them. Or the boss and boys would have been running. Either way my position would have been good. The harlies and spears could have charged if necessary though they more likely would have been moving right getting away from the boss.
The walker died in that ork turn killing off the flyers but leaving them far from the action. My subsequent moving phase would have allowed me to move everything except possibly the wraithlord out of their charge range probably engaging one or both the ork squads on the right. They were separated enough to be unable to provide support to each other so I could take down one at a time. Both had also been taking steady casualties the whole game from the lord and bikes so they weren't full strength mobs that would be hard to kill. In fact the squad nearer the center was actually charged by the harlies and remnants of the wraithguard squad and forced to run under half strength and unable to regroup. The lord and/or vyper could be left behind to keep them further from the bulk of my force moving right. By this time also they were down to 5 or 6 models so a good volley should have been able to destroy them. I think if I had played it right things would have looked something like this going into turn 5.
As I say above both the squads on the right were very killable as were the flying orks. The orks on foot farthest from the action were probably beyond my ability to handle. I think at this points I could keep one guard squad at full strength, one alive though badly mauled, the harlies alive (and their bonus VPs not going to the opponent), both farseers, one lord, one vyper and the bikes. He would have the immobile battle wagon, looted vehicle, grots, boss, mech, trukk, full boys squad and maybe the flyers though under half strength, though I may well have been able to cut killed one or two of those things. I think I would have had around 1400 points left to his 900 or so and also kept my hunted squad alive while killing his.
A loss is often worth more than a win though as there can be more to learn from, so I am actually fairly pleased with the game.
Better luck on your next game, and I would love to hear how a re-match goes, as I think you could take his list.
Yeah, I definately think the forces are fairly evenly matched and that the outcome is most dependant on how well the players play. I really have to play my best game though as he is an exceptional player. Even small mistakes can multiply creating big problems.
One example is the mistake with the bikes that cost me the shuriken cannon. I could have made pop up attacks for four turns taking no return fire. Shootas were steadily advancing on that side and by the time they entered the terrain piece covering the bikes, the bikes could have turboboosted past them to hide in cover near the looted vehicle then jumped out and shot at it once or twice with good odds of destroying it. I messed up, lost the cannon and lost the stronger potential for success.
If I had played things better the bikes would have been boosting forward about the time my forces were engaging the shootas so the bikes would have had nothing threatening them as they advanced. Also the vehicle lurched forward and would have been an easy target at that point as it would no longe be behing the partial cover it had.
Small mistakes can get big.